IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/ausecp/v65y2026i1p30-48.html

Sector‐Specific Exchange Rate Movements in Hong Kong Stock Market

Author

Listed:
  • Nazif Durmaz
  • Song Yang
  • Dechen Wang

Abstract

The present paper empirically examines the effects of exchange rate movements in Hong Kong's stock market using both linear ARDL and nonlinear NARDL models. Using quarterly data between 2005 and 2024 for 10 sector‐specific industries, our findings reveal significant and asymmetric effects of currency appreciation and depreciation across various industries. Sectors such as finance, healthcare, consumption, and energy exhibit high sensitivity to exchange rate movements, influenced by trade exposure and macroeconomic conditions. The study underscores the necessity of nonlinear models to capture the complex interactions between exchange rates and equity markets. Additionally, macroeconomic variables play crucial roles in determining stock market performance, highlighting the multifaceted nature of financial market behavior in an open economy like Hong Kong. These insights extend the empirical literature and offer practical guidance for investors and policymakers, emphasizing the need for sector‐specific risk management strategies, targeted policy support, and enhanced macroeconomic coordination to mitigate the adverse effects of currency volatility and bolster Hong Kong's financial system against global economic shifts.

Suggested Citation

  • Nazif Durmaz & Song Yang & Dechen Wang, 2026. "Sector‐Specific Exchange Rate Movements in Hong Kong Stock Market," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 65(1), pages 30-48, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:ausecp:v:65:y:2026:i:1:p:30-48
    DOI: 10.1111/1467-8454.70008
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8454.70008
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/1467-8454.70008?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nazif Durmaz, 2023. "Closed-End Fund Discounts and Economic Policy Uncertainty," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 16(3), pages 1-29, March.
    2. Hock Tsen Wong, 2022. "Asymmetric Real Exchange Rate and Foreign Direct Investment Determinants: An Empirical Study of Malaysia," Capital Markets Review, Malaysian Finance Association, vol. 30(2), pages 19-37.
    3. Christofi, A. & Pericli, A., 1999. "Correlation in price changes and volatility of major Latin American stock markets," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 79-93, January.
    4. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    5. Gary Tian & Shiguang Ma, 2010. "The relationship between stock returns and the foreign exchange rate: the ARDL approach," Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(4), pages 490-508.
    6. Huiming Zhu & Yueli Tang & Peng Guo, 2017. "Asymmetric spillover effects between the Shanghai and Hong Kong stock markets: evidence from quantile lagged regression," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(9), pages 886-902, February.
    7. Charles K.D. Adjasi & Nicholas B. Biekpe & Kofi A. Osei, 2011. "Stock prices and exchange rate dynamics in selected African countries: a bivariate analysis," African Journal of Economic and Management Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 2(2), pages 143-164, September.
    8. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Nazif Durmaz, 2021. "Exchange rate volatility and Turkey–EU commodity trade: an asymmetry analysis," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 48(2), pages 429-482, May.
    9. Charles K.D. Adjasi & Nicholas B. Biekpe & Kofi A. Osei, 2011. "Stock prices and exchange rate dynamics in selected African countries: a bivariate analysis," African Journal of Economic and Management Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 2(2), pages 143-164, September.
    10. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Sujata Saha, 2015. "On the relation between stock prices and exchange rates: a review article," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 42(4), pages 707-732, September.
    11. Tran Quang Huy, 2016. "The Linkage Between Exchange Rates and Stock Prices: Evidence from Vietnam," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 6(7), pages 363-373, July.
    12. Tran Quang Huy, 2016. "The Linkage Between Exchange Rates and Stock Prices: Evidence from Vietnam," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 6(7), pages 363-373.
    13. Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2005. "The saving and investment nexus for China: evidence from cointegration tests," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(17), pages 1979-1990.
    14. Mohsen Bahmani‐Oskooee & Scott W. Hegerty, 2007. "Exchange rate volatility and trade flows: a review article," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 34(3), pages 211-255, August.
    15. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Sujata Saha, 2024. "On the link between the real exchange rate and domestic investment in Asia: Are there asymmetric effects?," Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(2), pages 658-667, April.
    16. Andre Yone Haughton & Emma M. Iglesias, 2017. "Exchange Rate Movements, Stock Prices and Volatility in the Caribbean and Latin America," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(2), pages 437-447.
    17. Nazif Durmaz & Jiaxin Zheng & Pingyu Zhou, 2025. "Stock Returns and Income Inequality in Emerging Economies: Asymmetric Evidence from BRICS and MIKTA," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets Forum, vol. 17(3), pages 375-389, September.
    18. Nicolaas Groenewold & James E.H. Paterson, 2013. "Stock Prices and Exchange Rates in Australia: Are Commodity Prices the Missing Link?," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(3-4), pages 159-170, December.
    19. Diamandis, Panayiotis F. & Drakos, Anastassios A., 2011. "Financial liberalization, exchange rates and stock prices: Exogenous shocks in four Latin America countries," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 381-394, May.
    20. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Sujata Saha, 2015. "On the relation between stock prices and exchange rates: a review article," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 42(4), pages 707-732, September.
    21. Mohsen Bahmani‐Oskooee & Scott W. Hegerty, 2007. "Exchange rate volatility and trade flows: a review article," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 34(3), pages 211-255, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Tian, Maoxi & El Khoury, Rim & Alshater, Muneer M., 2023. "The nonlinear and negative tail dependence and risk spillovers between foreign exchange and stock markets in emerging economies," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    2. Waqar Khalid & Irfan Civcir & Hüseyin Özdeşer, 2025. "Revisiting the asymmetric effects of third-country exchange rate risk on Turkish–German industry trade," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 5(9), pages 1-55, September.
    3. Nazif Durmaz, 2026. "The nexus of exchange rates and stock prices: an ARDL and Granger non-causality study," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 16(1), pages 351-384, March.
    4. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Ahmed Usman & Sana Ullah, 2023. "Asymmetric Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on Commodity Trade Between Pakistan and China," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 24(3), pages 510-534, June.
    5. Siew-Pong Cheah & Thian-Hee Yiew & Cheong-Fatt Ng, 2017. "A nonlinear ARDL analysis on the relation between stock price and exchange rate in Malaysia," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 37(1), pages 336-346.
    6. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Augustine C. Arize & Ebere Ume Kalu, 2023. "On the asymmetric effects of exchange rate volatility on the U.S. Bilateral Trade with its 12 South American partners," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(2), pages 701-732, April.
    7. Bouzgarrou, Houssam & Ftiti, Zied & Louhichi, Waël & Yousfi, Mohamed, 2023. "What can we learn about the market reaction to macroeconomic surprise? Evidence from the COVID-19 crisis," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    8. Arash Habibi & Chin Lee, 2019. "Asymmetric Effects of Exchange Rates on Stock Prices in G7 Countries," Capital Markets Review, Malaysian Finance Association, vol. 27(1), pages 19-33.
    9. M Bahmani-Oskooee & H Harvey, 2025. "On the Link between European Policy Uncertainty and Export Earnings of European Countries," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 30(1), pages 1-20, March.
    10. Shaobo Long & Mengxue Zhang & Keaobo Li & Shuyu Wu, 2021. "Do the RMB exchange rate and global commodity prices have asymmetric or symmetric effects on China’s stock prices?," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 7(1), pages 1-21, December.
    11. Xingxing He & Korhan K. Gokmenoglu & Dervis Kirikkaleli & Syed Kumail Abbas Rizvi, 2023. "Co‐movement of foreign exchange rate returns and stock market returns in an emerging market: Evidence from the wavelet coherence approach," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(2), pages 1994-2005, April.
    12. Mohini Gupta & Sakshi Varshney, 2023. "Non-linear Effect of Real Exchange Rate Variability with Macroeconomic Variable on Non-Petroleum Commodities of India– US Trade," Foreign Trade Review, , vol. 58(2), pages 289-328, May.
    13. Ilia Tetin & Elizaveta Antonenko & Guych Nuryyev, 2023. "Asymmetric Effects of Exchange Rate Volatility on Taiwan-China Trade: A Non-Linear ARDL Analysis of 20 Industries," Bulletin of Applied Economics, Risk Market Journals, vol. 10(2), pages 173-189.
    14. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Sujata Saha, 2018. "On the relation between exchange rates and stock prices: a non-linear ARDL approach and asymmetry analysis," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 42(1), pages 112-137, January.
    15. Rabia Luqman & Rehana Kouser, 2018. "Asymmetrical Linkages between Foreign Exchange and Stock Markets: Empirical Evidence through Linear and Non-Linear ARDL," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-13, August.
    16. Mahnaz Muhammad Ali & Muhammad Muzammil & Ayesha Umar, 2022. "The Exchange Rate Volatility and Exports Growth of the Selected Developed Economies," Journal of Economic Impact, Science Impact Publishers, vol. 4(2), pages 51-57.
    17. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Huseyin Karamelikli & Farhang Niroomand, 2023. "Asymmetric effects of exchange rate volatility on trade flows: evidence from G7," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 47(1), pages 38-62, March.
    18. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Javed Iqbal & Saqib Ullah Khan, 2017. "Impact of exchange rate volatility on the commodity trade between Pakistan and the US," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 50(2), pages 161-187, May.
    19. Nektarios A. Michail, 2018. "Estimating a Bilateral J‐curve between the UK and the Euro Area," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 86(6), pages 757-769, December.
    20. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Hadiseh Fariditavana, 2019. "How sensitive are the U.S. inpayments and outpayments to real exchange rate changes: an asymmetry analysis," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 16(4), pages 619-647, October.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:ausecp:v:65:y:2026:i:1:p:30-48. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0004-900X .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.