IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/asiaps/v12y2025i3ne70032.html

How Does the Stock Market React to the Carbon Policy? The Chinese Experience During 2014–2022

Author

Listed:
  • Sarula Bai
  • Cheol‐Won Yang

Abstract

As countries around the world move towards carbon neutrality, firms are facing new challenges of policy uncertainty. China is an interesting place to explore this, as it is the largest carbon emitter and is taking strong steps towards carbon neutrality after the Paris Agreement. We investigate the impact of 28 Chinese carbon neutral policies on the stock return and systematic risk during 2014–2022. Event study methodology and modified CAPM (capital asset pricing model) with dummy variable for announcement date are employed. The results show that the electricity & heating, finance, and health sector experiences negative effects, while the mining industry has positive returns. Industries with mixed impacts initially experience negative impacts in the early stages, but turn positive later. Moreover, there is a noticeable trend of decreasing systematic risk in high‐energy‐consuming industries. This suggests that consistent policy enforcement can reduce the risks stemming from policy uncertainty, which in turn can benefit both firms and investors.

Suggested Citation

  • Sarula Bai & Cheol‐Won Yang, 2025. "How Does the Stock Market React to the Carbon Policy? The Chinese Experience During 2014–2022," Asia and the Pacific Policy Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(3), September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:asiaps:v:12:y:2025:i:3:n:e70032
    DOI: 10.1002/app5.70032
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1002/app5.70032
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1002/app5.70032?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Davide Benedetti & Enrico Biffis & Fotis Chatzimichalakis & Luciano Lilloy Fedele & Ian Simm, 2021. "Climate change investment risk: optimal portfolio construction ahead of the transition to a lower-carbon economy," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 299(1), pages 847-871, April.
    2. Huy Pham & Van Nguyen & Vikash Ramiah & Priyantha Mudalige & Imad Moosa, 2019. "The Effects of Environmental Regulation on the Singapore Stock Market," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-19, November.
    3. Chu, Long & Do, Thang Nam & Le, Thi Ha Lien & Ho, Quoc Anh & Dang, Khoi, 2024. "Carbon border adjustment mechanism, carbon pricing, and within-sector shifts: A partial equilibrium approach to Vietnam's steel sector," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    4. Shahnazari, Mahdi & McHugh, Adam & Maybee, Bryan & Whale, Jonathan, 2014. "Evaluation of power investment decisions under uncertain carbon policy: A case study for converting coal fired steam turbine to combined cycle gas turbine plants in Australia," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 271-279.
    5. Vikash Ramiah & Jacopo Pichelli & Imad Moosa, 2015. "Environmental regulation, the Obama effect and the stock market: some empirical results," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(7), pages 725-738, February.
    6. Ge, Xiaowen & Xue, Minggao & Cao, Ruiyi, 2024. "Do Chinese carbon-intensive stocks overreact to climate transition risk? Evidence from the COP26 news," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    7. Rodriguez Lopez, Juan Miguel & Sakhel, Alice & Busch, Timo, 2017. "Corporate investments and environmental regulation: The role of regulatory uncertainty, regulation-induced uncertainty, and investment history," European Management Journal, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 91-101.
    8. Dasgupta, Susmita & Laplante, Benoit & Mamingi, Nlandu, 2001. "Pollution and Capital Markets in Developing Countries," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 310-335, November.
    9. Gupta, Shreekant & Goldar, Bishwanath, 2005. "Do stock markets penalize environment-unfriendly behaviour? Evidence from India," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 81-95, January.
    10. repec:eme:maj000:maj-08-2014-1065 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Pástor, Ľuboš & Veronesi, Pietro, 2013. "Political uncertainty and risk premia," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(3), pages 520-545.
    12. repec:aen:eeepjl:eeep10-2-karplus is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Clausing, Kimberly & Elkerbout, Milan & Nehrkorn, Katarina & Wolfram, Catherine, 2024. "How Carbon Border Adjustments Might Drive Global Climate Policy Momentum," RFF Reports 24-20, Resources for the Future.
    14. Yan Jiang & Le Luo, 2018. "Market reactions to environmental policies: Evidence from China," Corporate Social Responsibility and Environmental Management, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 25(5), pages 889-903, September.
    15. Ramiah, Vikash & Martin, Belinda & Moosa, Imad, 2013. "How does the stock market react to the announcement of green policies?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(5), pages 1747-1758.
    16. Brown, Stephen J. & Warner, Jerold B., 1985. "Using daily stock returns : The case of event studies," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 3-31, March.
    17. Guo, Mengmeng & Kuai, Yicheng & Liu, Xiaoyan, 2020. "Stock market response to environmental policies: Evidence from heavily polluting firms in China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 306-316.
    18. Vikash Ramiah & Jacopo Pichelli & Imad Moosa, 2015. "The Effects of Environmental Regulation on Corporate Performance: A Chinese Perspective," Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies (RPBFMP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 18(04), pages 1-31, December.
    19. Dongmin Kong & Shasha Liu & Yunhao Dai, 2014. "Environmental Policy, Company Environment Protection, and Stock Market Performance: Evidence from China," Corporate Social Responsibility and Environmental Management, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 21(2), pages 100-112, March.
    20. Patrick Bolton & Marcin Kacperczyk, 2023. "Global Pricing of Carbon‐Transition Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 78(6), pages 3677-3754, December.
    21. Chen, Liang & Kettunen, Janne, 2017. "Is certainty in carbon policy better than uncertainty?," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 258(1), pages 230-243.
    22. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    23. Bolton, Patrick & Kacperczyk, Marcin, 2021. "Do investors care about carbon risk?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(2), pages 517-549.
    24. Vikash Ramiah & Thomas Morris & Imad Moosa & Michael Gangemi & Louise Puican, 2016. "The effects of announcement of green policies on equity portfolios: Evidence from the United Kingdom," Managerial Auditing Journal, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 31(2), pages 138-155, February.
    25. A. Craig MacKinlay, 1997. "Event Studies in Economics and Finance," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 35(1), pages 13-39, March.
    26. Vikash Ramiah & Thomas Morris & Imad Moosa & Michael Gangemi & Louise Puican, 2016. "The effects of announcement of green policies on equity portfolios," Managerial Auditing Journal, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 31(2), pages 138-155, February.
    27. Borghesi, S. & Castellini, M. & Comincioli, N. & Donadelli, M. & Gufler, I. & Vergalli, S., 2022. "European green policy announcements and sectoral stock returns," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).
    28. Blyth, William & Bradley, Richard & Bunn, Derek & Clarke, Charlie & Wilson, Tom & Yang, Ming, 2007. "Investment risks under uncertain climate change policy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 5766-5773, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nerger, Gian-Luca & Huynh, Toan Luu Duc & Wang, Mei, 2021. "Which industries benefited from Trump environmental policy news? Evidence from industrial stock market reactions," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    2. Giuliana Birindelli & Helen Chiappini, 2021. "Climate change policies: Good news or bad news for firms in the European Union?," Corporate Social Responsibility and Environmental Management, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 28(2), pages 831-848, March.
    3. Mahesh Dahal & Joy Das, 2025. "Are Green Policies Healthy for Stock Market? Evidence from Bombay Stock Exchange," Vision, , vol. 29(3), pages 275-292, June.
    4. Pham, Linh & Hao, Wei & Truong, Ha & Trinh, Hai Hong, 2023. "The impact of climate policy on U.S. environmentally friendly firms: A firm-level examination of stock return, volatility, volume, and connectedness," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    5. Birindelli, Giuliana & Miazza, Aline & Paimanova, Viktoriia & Palea, Vera, 2023. "Just “blah blah blah”? Stock market expectations and reactions to COP26," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    6. Oberndorfer, Ulrich & Ulbricht, Dirk, 2007. "Lost in Transmission? Stock Market Impacts of the 2006 European Gas Crisis," ZEW Discussion Papers 07-030, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    7. Ye, Dezhu & Liu, Shasha & Kong, Dongmin, 2013. "Do efforts on energy saving enhance firm values? Evidence from China's stock market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 360-369.
    8. Yalin Zhou & Jing Cao & Yujia Feng, 2021. "Stock Market Reactions to Pollution Information Disclosure: New Evidence from the Pollution Blacklist Program in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-13, February.
    9. Yassin Denis Bouzzine & Rainer Lueg, 2020. "The contagion effect of environmental violations: The case of Dieselgate in Germany," Business Strategy and the Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(8), pages 3187-3202, December.
    10. Martins, António Miguel & Albuquerque, Bruno & Sardinha, Luís & Moutinho, Nuno, 2025. "2024 U.S. presidential elections: An event study for U.S. and non-U.S. fossil fuel and renewable listed firms," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    11. Dongmin Kong & Shasha Liu & Yunhao Dai, 2014. "Environmental Policy, Company Environment Protection, and Stock Market Performance: Evidence from China," Corporate Social Responsibility and Environmental Management, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 21(2), pages 100-112, March.
    12. Sascha Kolaric, 2024. "The impact of climate litigation and activism on stock prices: the case of oil and gas majors," Review of Managerial Science, Springer, vol. 18(11), pages 3141-3172, November.
    13. Bashar Abu Khalaf & Munirah Sarhan Alqahtani & Maryam Saad Al-Naimi, 2025. "Climate Change Commitment and Stock Returns in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(11), pages 1-21, May.
    14. Assad Ullah & Xinshun Zhao & Unbreen Qayyum & Muhammad Abdul Kamal & Aamir Aijaz Sayed, 2024. "Modeling the Relationship Between Environmental Regulations and Stock Market Growth in China: Evidence Beyond Symmetry," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 15(1), pages 2460-2481, March.
    15. Dharen Kumar Pandey & Waleed M. Al‐ahdal & Hafiza Aishah Hashim, 2024. "Stock market reaction to mandatory sustainability reporting: Does carbon‐intensity and environmental, social, and governance reputation matter?," Business Strategy and the Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(8), pages 9116-9140, December.
    16. Gunther Capelle-Blancard & Adrien Desroziers & Bert Scholtens, 2021. "Shareholders and the environment: a review of four decades of academic research," Post-Print hal-03526647, HAL.
    17. Fan Xia & Yunxin Hua & Bing Zhang, 2024. "Does non‐compliance pay? Environmental violations and share prices in China," Corporate Social Responsibility and Environmental Management, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 31(3), pages 1886-1904, May.
    18. Alberto Barroso Del Toro & Laura Vivas Crisol & Xavier Tort-Martorell, 2022. "The Sustainability Narrative: A Multi Study Using Event Studies to Analyse the American Energy Companies Shareholder’s Reaction to Sustainability News," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(23), pages 1-17, November.
    19. Goicoechea, Ana & Lang, Megan Elizabeth, 2023. "Firms and Climate Change in Low- and Middle-Income Countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10644, The World Bank.
    20. Lihua Sun & Chunguang Bai & Joseph Sarkis, 2024. "Reward or punishment? The impact of heterogeneous environmental regulatory intervention on the firm market value," Business Strategy and the Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(5), pages 4004-4023, July.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:asiaps:v:12:y:2025:i:3:n:e70032. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=2050-2680 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.