Predictability and Reflexivity

. Reflexive predictions are self‐defeating or self‐fulfilling. However, it was shown that in most cases of self defeating public predictions of social events conceptually at least one correct prediction exists. Unfortunately the term “reflexive prediction” is applied in the literature to quite distinct phenomena. A. Grünbaum, moreover, argued that reflexive prediction occurs also in the natural sciences using as example the fire‐control system which “obeys only natural laws.” The purpose of this paper is two fold: first, it clarifies the terminological confusion. Second, it argues that every man‐made tool (fire‐control systems are tools) obeys natural laws and so does the person. The question of a person's higher functions, such as expectation and decision is only acknowledged. The conclusions are (1) that there is a fundamental difference between reaction to public (predictive) utterances and reaction to discriminatory behavior based on private ptediciion. (2) The reflexivity of public prediction is a phenomenon characteristic of the social sciences. at least as long as these disciplines are set apart from the natural sciences.