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Trade Liberalisation and Agricultural Exports: Evidence From Afghanistan’s WTO Accessions

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  • Yuping Deng
  • Abdul Ahmad Pooya
  • Shah Mir Mowahed

Abstract

This paper examines the impact of Afghanistan's accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) on its Agricultural Export Performance (LnAEP), with a particular focus on the effects of Trade Liberalisation (TLIB). Using the Difference‐ in‐ Differences (DIDs) methodology, we found that TLIB has a positive and statistically significant effect on LnAEP, suggesting that a 1% decrease in tariffs increases export value by approximately 0.124% in Afghanistan. This result is further validated by employing Double‐Selection LASSO Regression (DSLR), Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) and Kernel‐Based Regularised Least Squares (KRLS) machine learning techniques. Additionally, endogeneity concerns are addressed using Trade Policy Uncertainty (LnTPU) as an Instrumental Variable (IV), with results indicating that the estimated effects are free from endogeneity bias. Moreover, heterogeneity analysis reveals that the impact of TLIB on LnAEP varies across different income levels, regions and neighbouring country classifications. Furthermore, a three‐step mediation analysis demonstrates that Trade Costs (LnTC) and Resource Allocation (LnRA) partially mediate the relationship between TLIB and LnAEP. Based on these empirical outcomes, several policy recommendations are discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Yuping Deng & Abdul Ahmad Pooya & Shah Mir Mowahed, 2026. "Trade Liberalisation and Agricultural Exports: Evidence From Afghanistan’s WTO Accessions," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 70(2), pages 470-487, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:ajarec:v:70:y:2026:i:2:p:470-487
    DOI: 10.1111/1467-8489.70092
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