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Futures Prices As Forecasts Of Commodity Spot Prices: Live Cattle And Wool

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  • David E. A. Giles
  • Barry A. Goss

Abstract

In this paper the foundations on which the predictive interpretation of futures prices rests are discussed, and possible reasons for the differential predictive performance of futures prices as between different commodity markets examined. The predictive performances of futures, and spot prices themselves, are tested empirically, using Australian data for wool (a continuous inventory commodity) and finished live beef cattle (virtually a non-storable commodity), by means of instrumental variables estimation.
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Suggested Citation

  • David E. A. Giles & Barry A. Goss, 1981. "Futures Prices As Forecasts Of Commodity Spot Prices: Live Cattle And Wool," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 25(1), pages 1-13, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:ajarec:v:25:y:1981:i:1:p:1-13
    DOI: j.1467-8489.1981.tb00380.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Fisher, Brian S., 1985. "Frontiers in Agricultural Policy Research," Review of Marketing and Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 53(02), pages 1-11, August.
    2. Garcia, Philip & Hudson, Michael A. & Waller, Mark L., 1988. "The Pricing Efficiency of Agricultural Futures Markets: An Analysis of Previous Research Results," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(1), pages 119-130, July.
    3. Loy, Jens-Peter, 2002. "Relative Forecasting and Hedging Efficiency of Agricultural Futures Markets in the European Union: Evidence for Slaughter Hog Contracts," 2002 International Congress, August 28-31, 2002, Zaragoza, Spain 24849, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    4. Unknown, 1990. "Structural Change in Livestock: Causes, Implications, Alternatives," Research Institute on Livestock Pricing 232728, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics.
    5. Steven C. Blank, 1984. "Cross Hedging Australian Cattle," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 28(2-3), pages 153-162, 08-12.

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