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Economic Implications of AES Countries' Withdrawal From ECOWAS: A Multiregional CGE Model Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Gaël Somé
  • Patrice Rélouendé Zidouemba
  • Yaya Koloma
  • Lacina Balma
  • Aboubakar Sidiki Cissé

Abstract

This study investigates the economic implications of the withdrawal of the Alliance of Sahel States (AES)—Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger—from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) using a multi‐regional computable general equilibrium model. The results show that reintroducing customs duties on trade with non‐WAEMU ECOWAS countries increases import costs and redirects trade flows toward WAEMU members and global markets. While imports from non‐WAEMU ECOWAS partners decline, domestic demand rises slightly in manufacturing and extractive sectors. Household consumption, income, and investment remain broadly stable, indicating short‐term economic resilience, with stronger investment growth in Niger. Sectoral effects vary, extractive and heavy industries expand in Niger, textiles and light manufacturing grow in Burkina Faso and Mali, while transport, livestock, and some service sectors contract. These findings highlight the need for targeted policies to support structural adjustment, strengthen intra‐AES trade, diversify external partnerships, modernize key sectors, and facilitate labor market transitions.

Suggested Citation

  • Gaël Somé & Patrice Rélouendé Zidouemba & Yaya Koloma & Lacina Balma & Aboubakar Sidiki Cissé, 2026. "Economic Implications of AES Countries' Withdrawal From ECOWAS: A Multiregional CGE Model Analysis," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 38(2), June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:afrdev:v:38:y:2026:i:2:n:e70057
    DOI: 10.1111/1467-8268.70057
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Mamoudou Sebego & Idrissa M. Ouedraogo & Abiodun O. Folawewo, 2026. "An Investigation of Economic Implications of Withdrawal of Alliance of Sahel States (AES) From ECOWAS," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 38(1), March.
    2. Amsalu Dachito Chigeto & Jayamohan M. K., 2025. "Multiple Memberships in Regional Trade Agreements and Intraregional Trade Dynamics in Sub‐Saharan Africa," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 37(2), June.
    3. Ansgar Belke & Daniel Gros, 2017. "The Economic Impact of Brexit: Evidence from Modelling Free Trade Agreements," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 45(3), pages 317-331, September.
    4. Prince P. Asaloko & Simplice A. Asongu & Nicole Asseru Odhua & Gracia Mokondi Mosunga, 2026. "Regional Integration and Participation of COMESA Member Countries in Global Value Chains," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 38(1), March.
    5. Ekene ThankGod Emeka & Jonathan E. Ogbuabor & Emmanuel O. Nwosu, 2024. "Effects of public infrastructural development and industrialization on economic complexity in Africa: Emerging insight from panel data analysis," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 36(1), pages 97-110, March.
    6. Saad Ahmad & Nuno Limão & Sarah Oliver & Serge Shikher, 2023. "Brexit Uncertainty and Its (Dis)service Effects," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 459-485, November.
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