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Résilience de la croissance économique en contexte pandémique des pays d'Afrique subsaharienne: Une explication par les mesures de lutte contre la COVID‐19

Author

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  • Aristide Merlin Ngono
  • Emmanuel Bruno Ongo Nkoa
  • Marc‐Hubert Depret

Abstract

Cette étude évalue l'impact des mesures de lutte contre la COVID‐19 sur la résilience de la croissance économique en Afrique subsaharienne à partir des données du Fond Monétaire international et de l'Oxford COVID‐19 Suivi des réponses gouvernementales. Utilisant un échantillon de 45 pays d'Afrique subsaharienne, nous avons élaboré deux indices un indice de résistance au choc et un indice de reprise post‐COVID. Ces indices, ajustés quotidiennement, ont servi pour les estimations économétriques basées sur le modèle N‐SIRD estimé avec la méthode des moindres carrés ordinaires et les moindres carrés généralisés. Les résultats montrent que certaines mesures (restrictions sur les rassemblements, quarantaines, allègement de la dette, contrôle des voyages) ont favorisé la reprise économique, tandis que d'autres (confinement strict, fermeture des écoles et des lieux de travail) ont freiné cette dynamique. L’étude propose une nouvelle échelle de résilience à l'intention des décideurs afin de mieux orienter les politiques économiques en période de crise. En enrichissant la littérature sur la résilience économique en Afrique subsaharienne, cette étude fournit des perspectives utiles pour la gestion des futures crises pandémiques en soulignant l'importance d'une coordination efficace entre politiques sanitaires et économiques pour préserver la stabilité économique d'ensemble.

Suggested Citation

  • Aristide Merlin Ngono & Emmanuel Bruno Ongo Nkoa & Marc‐Hubert Depret, 2025. "Résilience de la croissance économique en contexte pandémique des pays d'Afrique subsaharienne: Une explication par les mesures de lutte contre la COVID‐19," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 37(3), September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:afrdev:v:37:y:2025:i:3:n:e70028
    DOI: 10.1111/1467-8268.70028
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    References listed on IDEAS

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