IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/acctfi/v66y2026i2p1101-1129.html

How Tether Depegging Affects Cryptocurrency Returns

Author

Listed:
  • Sean Foley
  • Seung Ah Lee
  • George Milunovich

Abstract

This paper examines the relationship between Tether depegging events and the returns of ten major cryptocurrencies from November 2017 to November 2024. We distinguish between upward and downward deviations from the Tether peg, identifying these events as threshold exceedances based on historical prices, using both constant parameter and rolling‐window frameworks. Our results show that downward depegging events lead to immediate declines in cryptocurrency returns, with the impact typically increasing in severity as the deviation grows. Upward depegging events are also associated with negative effects. Lagged analysis shows that severe downward depegging is often followed by a partial recovery the next day, while lead effects are generally weak, except in cases of large negative depegging. This suggests that markets may begin to price in concerns about Tether's stability ahead of depegging events.

Suggested Citation

  • Sean Foley & Seung Ah Lee & George Milunovich, 2026. "How Tether Depegging Affects Cryptocurrency Returns," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 66(2), pages 1101-1129, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:acctfi:v:66:y:2026:i:2:p:1101-1129
    DOI: 10.1111/acfi.70201
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/acfi.70201
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/acfi.70201?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Klaudia Jarno & Hanna Kołodziejczyk, 2021. "Does the Design of Stablecoins Impact Their Volatility?," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(2), pages 1-14, January.
    2. Eichengreen, Barry & Rose, Andrew K & Wyplosz, Charles, 1996. "Contagious Currency Crises," CEPR Discussion Papers 1453, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    3. repec:bla:scandj:v:98:y:1996:i:4:p:463-84 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Dimitrios Koutmos, 2020. "Market risk and Bitcoin returns," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 294(1), pages 453-477, November.
    5. Galati, Luca & Capalbo, Francesco, 2024. "Silicon Valley Bank bankruptcy and Stablecoins stability," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    6. Ariah Klages-Mundt & Andreea Minca, 2020. "While Stability Lasts: A Stochastic Model of Non-Custodial Stablecoins," Papers 2004.01304, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2022.
    7. Ariah Klages‐Mundt & Andreea Minca, 2022. "While stability lasts: A stochastic model of noncustodial stablecoins," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(4), pages 943-981, October.
    8. Chen, En-Te (John) & Clements, Adam, 2007. "S&P 500 implied volatility and monetary policy announcements," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 227-232, December.
    9. Yukun Liu & Aleh Tsyvinski & Xi Wu, 2022. "Common Risk Factors in Cryptocurrency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(2), pages 1133-1177, April.
    10. Rama K. Malladi & Prakash L. Dheeriya, 2021. "Time series analysis of Cryptocurrency returns and volatilities," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 45(1), pages 75-94, January.
    11. Milunovich, George & Lee, Seung Ah, 2022. "Measuring the impact of digital exchange cyberattacks on Bitcoin Returns," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 221(C).
    12. Jakub Bartos, 2015. "Does Bitcoin follow the hypothesis of efficient market?," International Journal of Economic Sciences, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences, vol. 4(2), pages 10-23, June.
    13. Jiageng Liu & Igor Makarov & Antoinette Schoar, 2023. "Anatomy of a Run: The Terra Luna Crash," NBER Working Papers 31160, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Foley, Sean & Li, Simeng & Malloch, Hamish & Svec, Jiri, 2022. "What is the expected return on Bitcoin? Extracting the term structure of returns from options prices," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 210(C).
    15. Sydney C. Ludvigson & Sai Ma & Serena Ng, 2021. "Uncertainty and Business Cycles: Exogenous Impulse or Endogenous Response?," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 13(4), pages 369-410, October.
    16. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Lasse Heje Pedersen, 2009. "Market Liquidity and Funding Liquidity," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(6), pages 2201-2238, June.
    17. Berg, Andrew & Pattillo, Catherine, 1999. "Predicting currency crises:: The indicators approach and an alternative," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 561-586, August.
    18. John M. Griffin & Amin Shams, 2020. "Is Bitcoin Really Untethered?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 75(4), pages 1913-1964, August.
    19. Foley, Sean & Krekel, William & Mollica, Vito & Svec, Jiri, 2023. "Not so fast: Identifying and remediating slow and imprecise cryptocurrency exchange data," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    20. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dionysopoulos, Lambis & Urquhart, Andrew, 2024. "10 years of stablecoins: Their impact, what we know, and future research directions," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 244(C).
    2. Philippe Bergault & Louis Bertucci & David Bouba & Olivier Gu'eant & Julien Guilbert, 2024. "Automated Market Making: the case of Pegged Assets," Papers 2411.08145, arXiv.org.
    3. Şoiman, Florentina & Dumas, Jean-Guillaume & Jimenez-Garces, Sonia, 2023. "What drives DeFi market returns?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    4. Palazzi, Rafael Baptista & Schich, Sebastian & de Genaro, Alan, 2025. "Stablecoins as anchors? Unraveling information flow dynamics between pegged and unpegged crypto-assets and fiat currencies," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    5. Gregory, Gadzinski & Alessio, Castello & Vito, Liuzzi & Patrice, Sargenti, 2024. "Break a peg! A study of stablecoin co-instability," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 96(PA).
    6. Chiraz Karamti & Wafa Bouabid, 2026. "Stablecoins under global stress tests: evidence across four reserve designs," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 29(1), pages 1-40, December.
    7. Farag, Hisham & Luo, Di & Yarovaya, Larisa & Zieba, Damian, 2025. "Returns from liquidity provision in cryptocurrency markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 175(C).
    8. Florentina c{S}oiman & Guillaume Dumas & Sonia Jimenez-Garces, 2022. "The return of (I)DeFiX," Papers 2204.00251, arXiv.org.
    9. Ahmed, Jameel & Straetmans, Stefan, 2015. "Predicting exchange rate cycles utilizing risk factors," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 112-130.
    10. Vanhoudt Patrick, 2026. "Anchoring Europe’s Monetary Future: Why a Wholesale Digital Euro Is the Immediate Priority," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Sciendo, vol. 61(2), pages 73-80.
    11. Dudek, Jérémy, 2013. "Illiquidité, contagion et risque systémique," Economics Thesis from University Paris Dauphine, Paris Dauphine University, number 123456789/13236 edited by Le Fol, Gaëlle.
    12. Jia, Yuecheng & Wu, Yangru & Yan, Shu & Liu, Yuzheng, 2023. "A seesaw effect in the cryptocurrency market: Understanding the return cross predictability of cryptocurrencies," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    13. Grobys, Klaus & Junttila, Juha-Pekka & Kolari, James W., 2025. "A stablecoin that’s actually stable: A portfolio optimization approach," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    14. Florentina Șoiman & Jean-Guillaume Dumas & Sonia Jimenez-Garces, 2022. "The return of (I)DeFiX [Le rendement de (I)DeFiX]," Working Papers hal-03625891, HAL.
    15. Wolfgang Drobetz & Lars Hornuf & Paul P. Momtaz & Niclas Schermann, 2025. "Token-Based Crowdfunding: Investor Choice and the Optimal Timing of Initial Coin Offerings," Entrepreneurship Theory and Practice, , vol. 49(1), pages 232-282, January.
    16. Timothy King & Dimitrios Koutmos & Francesco Saverio Stentella Lopes, 2021. "Cryptocurrency Mining Protocols: A Regulatory and Technological Overview," Palgrave Studies in Financial Services Technology, in: Timothy King & Francesco Saverio Stentella Lopes & Abhishek Srivastav & Jonathan Williams (ed.), Disruptive Technology in Banking and Finance, edition 1, chapter 0, pages 93-134, Palgrave Macmillan.
    17. Matkovskyy, Roman, 2013. "To the Problem of Financial Safety Estimation: the Index of Financial Safety of Turkey," MPRA Paper 47673, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Prof.Dr. Cevat GERNI & Doc.Dr. O. Selcuk EMSEN & Dr. M. Kemal DEGER, 2005. "Erken Uyari Sistemlerý Yoluyla Turkiye’Deki Ekonomik Krizlerin Analizi," Istanbul University Econometrics and Statistics e-Journal, Department of Econometrics, Faculty of Economics, Istanbul University, vol. 2(1), pages 39-62, November.
    19. Serge Darolles & Jeremy Dudek & Gaëlle Le Fol, 2014. "Liquidity risk and contagion for liquid funds," Post-Print hal-01632776, HAL.
    20. Cipollini, A. & Kapetanios, G., 2009. "Forecasting financial crises and contagion in Asia using dynamic factor analysis," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 188-200, March.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:acctfi:v:66:y:2026:i:2:p:1101-1129. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aaanzea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.