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Betting on temperature: psychological bias in insurance purchases

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  • Dongmin Kong
  • Ni Qin
  • Zhijian Feng
  • Shasha Liu

Abstract

We examine effects of psychological bias on insurance purchases. In 2014, a Chinese insurance company provided high‐temperature insurance, compensating the insured if days with temperature ≥37°C beat the deductible threshold. Although the possibility of a claim is nearly zero and perfectly predicted by the historical temperatures, individual decisions are over‐influenced by the current temperature. A 1 percent increase in hourly temperature is associated with a 3.1 percent increase in hourly sales. The bias is more pronounced with extremely high temperature periods, for young people, and for individuals with a preference for gambling and with easy access to the Internet. We present the importance of psychological bias in understanding individual decisions.

Suggested Citation

  • Dongmin Kong & Ni Qin & Zhijian Feng & Shasha Liu, 2019. "Betting on temperature: psychological bias in insurance purchases," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 59(5), pages 2993-3027, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:acctfi:v:59:y:2019:i:5:p:2993-3027
    DOI: 10.1111/acfi.12565
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