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Multivariate GARCH hedge ratios and hedging effectiveness in Australian futures markets

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  • Wenling Yang
  • David E. Allen

Abstract

We use the All Ordinaries Index and the corresponding Share Price Index futures contract written against the All Ordinaries Index to estimate optimal hedge ratios, adopting several specifications: an ordinary least squares‐based model, a vector autoregression, a vector error‐correction model and a diagonal‐vec multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity model. Hedging effectiveness is measured using a risk‐return comparison and a utility maximization method. We find that time‐varying generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity hedge ratios perform better than constant hedge ratios in terms of minimizing risks, but when return effects are also considered, the utility‐based measure prefers the ordinary least squares method in the in‐sample hedge, whilst both approaches favour the conditional time‐varying multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity hedge ratio estimates in out‐of‐sample analyses.

Suggested Citation

  • Wenling Yang & David E. Allen, 2005. "Multivariate GARCH hedge ratios and hedging effectiveness in Australian futures markets," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 45(2), pages 301-321, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:acctfi:v:45:y:2005:i:2:p:301-321
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-629x.2004.00119.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Mohd Aminul Islam, 2017. "An Empirical Evaluation of Hedging Effectiveness of Crude Palm Oil Futures Market in Malaysia," International Journal of Economics and Financial Research, Academic Research Publishing Group, vol. 3(11), pages 303-314, 11-2017.
    2. Michael O'Neill & Gulasekaran Rajaguru, 2020. "A response surface analysis of critical values for the lead‐lag ratio with application to high frequency and non‐synchronous financial data," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 60(4), pages 3979-3990, December.
    3. Michael J. O'Neill & Zhangxin Liu & Tom Smith, 2017. "Fund Volatility Index using equity market state prices," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 57(3), pages 837-853, September.
    4. Virbickaitė, Audronė & Ausín, M. Concepción & Galeano, Pedro, 2016. "A Bayesian non-parametric approach to asymmetric dynamic conditional correlation model with application to portfolio selection," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 814-829.
    5. Babu Jose & Nithin Jose, 2023. "Is Cross-Hedging Effective for Mitigating Equity Investment Risks in the Indian Banking Sector?," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 30(1), pages 189-210, March.
    6. Rozaimah Zainudin & Roselee Shah Shaharudin, 2011. "Multi Mean Garch Approach to Evaluating Hedging Performance in the Crude Palm Oil Futures Market," Asian Academy of Management Journal of Accounting and Finance (AAMJAF), Penerbit Universiti Sains Malaysia, vol. 7(1), pages 111-130.
    7. Ghoddusi, Hamed & Emamzadehfard, Sahar, 2017. "Optimal hedging in the US natural gas market: The effect of maturity and cointegration," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 92-105.
    8. Ubukata, Masato, 2018. "Dynamic hedging performance and downside risk: Evidence from Nikkei index futures," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 270-281.
    9. Guo, Zhibo & White, Ben & Mugera, Amin, 2013. "Hedge Effectiveness for Western Australia Crops," 2013 Conference (57th), February 5-8, 2013, Sydney, Australia 152154, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    10. Lumengo Bonga-Bonga & Ekerete Umoetok, 2016. "The effectiveness of index futures hedging in emerging markets during the crisis period of 2008-2010: Evidence from South Africa," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(42), pages 3999-4018, September.
    11. Shashi Gupta & Himanshu Choudhary & D.R. Agarwal, 2017. "Hedging Efficiency of Indian Commodity Futures," Paradigm, , vol. 21(1), pages 1-20, June.
    12. Ludwig B Chincarini, 2007. "The effectiveness of global currency hedging after the Asian crisis," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 8(1), pages 34-51, May.
    13. Cho, Jae-Beom & Min, Hong-Ghi & McDonald, Judith Ann, 2020. "Volatility and dynamic currency hedging," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    14. Wagner Oliveira Monteiro & Rodrigo De Losso da Silveira Bueno, 2011. "Dynamic Hedging inMarkov Regimes Switching," Anais do XXXVII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 37th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 136, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    15. Michael J O’Neill & Zhangxin (Frank) Liu, 2016. "Tail risk hedging for mutual funds using equity market state prices," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 41(4), pages 687-698, November.
    16. Luděk Benada, 2018. "Comparison of the Impact of Econometric Models on Hedging Performance by Crude Oil and Natural Gas," Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, Mendel University Press, vol. 66(2), pages 423-429.
    17. Dar-Hsin Chen & Leo Bin & Chun-Yi Tseng, 2014. "Hedging Effectiveness of Applying Constant and Time-Varying Hedge Ratios: Evidence from Taiwan Stock Index Spot and Futures," Journal of Risk & Control, Risk Market Journals, vol. 1(1), pages 31-49.
    18. Lerskullawat, Polwat, 2019. "Hedging Effectiveness on the Thailand Futures Exchange Market," Asian Journal of Applied Economics, Kasetsart University, Center for Applied Economics Research, vol. 26(2), December.
    19. Cuong Nguyen & M. Bhatti & Aziz Hayat, 2014. "Volatility linkages in the spot and futures market in Australia: a copula approach," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 48(5), pages 2589-2603, September.
    20. Bessler, Wolfgang & Leonhardt, Alexander & Wolff, Dominik, 2016. "Analyzing hedging strategies for fixed income portfolios: A Bayesian approach for model selection," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 239-256.
    21. Ibhagui, Oyakhilome, 2021. "Stock market and deviations from covered interest parity," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    22. John Hua Fan & Eduardo Roca & Alexandr Akimov, 2010. "Hedging With Futures Contract: Estimation and Performance Evaluation of Optimal Hedge Ratios in the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme," Discussion Papers in Finance finance:201009, Griffith University, Department of Accounting, Finance and Economics.
    23. Zhangxin (Frank) Liu & Michael J. O'Neill, 2018. "Partial moment volatility indices," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 58(1), pages 195-215, March.
    24. Lee, Taehyun & Moutzouris, Ioannis C & Papapostolou, Nikos C & Fatouh, Mahmoud, 2023. "Foreign exchange hedging using regime-switching models: the case of pound sterling," Bank of England working papers 1042, Bank of England.
    25. Hakan Er & Adnan Hushmat, 2017. "The application of technical trading rules developed from spot market prices on futures market prices using CAPM," Eurasian Business Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 7(3), pages 313-353, December.

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