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How the Bank of Russia Is Perceived on Telegram Channels: Building an Index Using Machine Learning Methods

Author

Listed:
  • Alisa Polekhina

    (Bank of Russia)

  • Anna Guseva

    (Bank of Russia)

Abstract

The paper constructs a Bank of Russia perception index on Telegram channels, which may serve as a leading indicator of public confidence in the regulator (correlation with InFOM survey data - 74%). The index is estimated on unstructured data from 1,400 Telegram channels. This is the first index of its kind, providing a comprehensive picture of the information field by classifying channels into types and key areas of the Bank of Russia's activities, from monetary policy to the financial market and the national payment system. For text analysis, we use both the traditional dictionary method and modern large linguistic models. The final index correlates with household inflation expectations and business price expectations but has no statistical link to financial market variables. The index opens up new opportunities for researching public perception of the Bank of Russia's policy and can be used as a tool for assessing the effectiveness of its communication.

Suggested Citation

  • Alisa Polekhina & Anna Guseva, 2025. "How the Bank of Russia Is Perceived on Telegram Channels: Building an Index Using Machine Learning Methods," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 84(3), pages 28-62, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bkr:journl:v:84:y:2025:i:3:p:28-62
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    JEL classification:

    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • C55 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Large Data Sets: Modeling and Analysis

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