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International determinants of foreign reserves accumulation in Vietnam

Author

Listed:
  • Hoang Thanh Hien

    (FPT University, Da Nang, Viet Nam)

  • Vo Thi Hong Thuy

    (Danang University of Economics - The University of Da Nang, Da Nang, Viet Nam)

  • Huynh Thi Dieu Linh

    (Danang University of Economics - The University of Da Nang, Da Nang, Viet Nam)

Abstract

Motivated by the recent decline in Vietnam’s foreign reserves, this study investigates their key determinants, with a particular focus on international factors. Based on empirical literature, the research examines three external drivers - exports, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), and exchange rate - along with three domestic variables: inflation, money supply, and GDP. Using quarterly data from 2005 to 2023 and applying the Autoregressive Distributed Lag Error Correction Model (ARDL-ECM), the study explores both short- and long-run relationships. The results reveal that exports and money supply positively affect foreign reserves in the long run, with elasticity coefficients of 1.37 (p

Suggested Citation

  • Hoang Thanh Hien & Vo Thi Hong Thuy & Huynh Thi Dieu Linh, 2026. "International determinants of foreign reserves accumulation in Vietnam," HO CHI MINH CITY OPEN UNIVERSITY JOURNAL OF SCIENCE - ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION, HO CHI MINH CITY OPEN UNIVERSITY JOURNAL OF SCIENCE, HO CHI MINH CITY OPEN UNIVERSITY, vol. 16(3), pages 54-67.
    • Handle: RePEc:bjw:econen:v:16:y:2026:i:3:p:54-67
    DOI: 10.46223/HCMCOUJS.econ.en.16.3.4183.2026
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    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies

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