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The Impact of oil prices fluctuation on algerian exports to the European Union: An empirical study 1976-2018

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  • قوســــــــــــام بـــــــــــــركنو

    (University of Algiers 3 (Algeria))

Abstract

تهدف الدراسة إلى بيان أثر تغير أسعار النفط على صادرات الجزائر إلى الاتحاد الأوروبي من منظور قياسي خلال الفترة 1976-2018 بعد توصيف واقعها و تحليل خصائصها في ظل الخصوصية الريعية للاقتصاد الوطني باستخدام منهجية التكامل المشترك لـ Johansen ونموذج تصحيح الخطأ ECM واختبار السببية لـToda & Yamamoto(1995) وكذا تحليل دوال الاستجابة الدفعية. وقد جاءت نتائجها مؤكدة لواقع مسايرة الصادرات سواء الإجمالية أو إلى الاتحاد الأوروبي لتغيرات أسعار النفط من منطلق هيمنة المحروقات على تركيبتها الإجمالية بشكل يعرض عوائدها لتقلبات حادة تترتب عنها مخاطر كبيرة على الاقتصاد الوطني في حال انهيار الأسعار. This study aims to show the impact of oil prices Fluctuation on Algeria's exports to the European Union through a econometric approach during the period 1976-2018, after describing its reality and analyzing its characteristics under the rentier peculiarity of the national economy using Johansen's Co-Integration Methodology, ECM; Toda-Yamamoto's Causality Test(1995) and response functions analyses. The results of this study confirmed the fact that total exports or the exports to the European Union are Sensitive to oil price Fluctuations due to the dominance of hydrocarbons over their overall composition, in a way that exposes their revenues to sharp fluctuations that entail great risks to the national economy in the case of the price collapse.

Suggested Citation

  • قوســــــــــــام بـــــــــــــركنو, 2021. "The Impact of oil prices fluctuation on algerian exports to the European Union: An empirical study 1976-2018," IJEP, ALPEC The performance of Algerian economic institutions in light of international economic mobility , Boumerdes University, vol. 4(01), pages 42-61, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bjm:ijep00:v:4:y:2021:i:01:id:168
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