Assessment of Fire Service Coverage and Optimal Siting of New Fire Stations in Ibadan North Local Government Area, Oyo State, Nigeria

Rapid urbanization in many developing cities has placed increasing pressure on emergency response infrastructure, particularly fire service systems, where spatial accessibility is crucial for minimizing response time and mitigating fire-related risks. This study evaluated the spatial adequacy of fire station coverage in Ibadan North Local Government Area (LGA) of, Nigeria. It identifies optimal locations for additional facilities using Geographic Information System (GIS)-based spatial analysis. High-resolution satellite imagery, road network data, and population statistics were integrated within an ArcGIS environment to conduct service area modelling, route optimization, origin–destination cost matrix analysis, and location–allocation modelling. The road network was digitized and classified according to the road hierarchy and travel speed to simulate realistic emergency vehicle movements. The results indicate that only seven operational fire stations serve the wider Ibadan metropolis, with only one located within the study area. Relative to the recommended benchmark of one station per 50,000 residents, the current configuration is inadequate for populations exceeding 300,000. Accessibility modelling shows that incidents within approximately 1.4 km of a station can be reached within 2.1 min under ideal conditions and 2.8 min under constrained scenarios; however, service-area analysis using 4-minutes, 5-minutes, and 8-minutes thresholds reveals fragmented coverage, leaving several densely populated areas beyond acceptable response limits. Location–allocation modelling identified optimal sites for additional stations, and simulated deployment significantly improved spatial equity and response coverage. These findings demonstrate the critical role of GIS-driven spatial optimization in strengthening emergency planning and highlight the urgent need for strategic expansion of fire service to enhance urban resilience in rapidly growing cities.