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A Modified Neo-Malthusian Population Growth Model for Predicting Demographic Processes in Nigeria

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  • Oke S. Abayomi

    (Department of Statistics, Ladoke Akintola University of Technology, Ogbomosho Biostatistics Unit, Dept. of Statistics, University of Ibadan)

  • Oyamakin S. Oluwafemi

    (Department of Statistics, Ladoke Akintola University of Technology, Ogbomosho)

Abstract

This study develops a Modified Neo-Malthusian Population Growth Model tailored to Nigeria’s demographic realities. Utilizing both classical and novel modeling frameworks, including exponential, logistic, Gompertz, von Bertalanffy, and Richards models, four new allometry-parameter-based models are introduced to better account for nonlinear growth dynamics. Parameters were estimated using Marquardt’s Compromise Method and model performance assessed via R², RMSE, AIC, and BIC. Nigeria Population data as published on https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/nga/nigeria/population provided the basis for calibration and validation. Results indicate that Proposed Model 3 offers the most accurate predictions, while Proposed Model 1 and 2 demonstrated strong performance in Nigeria Population projections. This model suite provides enhanced tools for demographic forecasting and development planning in Nigeria.

Suggested Citation

  • Oke S. Abayomi & Oyamakin S. Oluwafemi, 2025. "A Modified Neo-Malthusian Population Growth Model for Predicting Demographic Processes in Nigeria," International Journal of Research and Innovation in Applied Science, International Journal of Research and Innovation in Applied Science (IJRIAS), vol. 10(8), pages 499-507, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:bjf:journl:v:10:y:2025:i:8:p:499-507
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