Climate Elasticity of Streamflow to Climatic Variables and Implications for Hydropower Generation in Kainji and Jebba Hydropower Stations, Nigeria

This study was conducted to examine the potential influence of climate change on stream flow peaks in Kainji and Jebba Hydropower Projects, Nigeria for the period 1967-2024 and implications for hydropower generation. The study uses long term historical data on rainfall, minimum and maximum air temperature, runoff peak discharge and evapotranspiration to investigate climate elasticity of rainfall and evapotranspiration to climate change and implications for hydropower generation. The study uses Mann–Kendall and Sen’s slope estimator tests to detect monotonic trends in the hydro-climatic variables. Climate elasticity of rainfall and evapotranspiration was examined using the non-parametric method to determine the response of streamflow to climate change. The results shows that streamflow the median elasticity of rainfall and evapotranspiration in Kainji was 0.76 and -0.05 while streamflow elasticity of rainfall and evapotranspiration in Jebba were 0.63 and 5.4 indicating that a 10 percent increase in rainfall in Kainji lead to 7.6 percent increase in runoff while a 10 percent increase in rainfall in Jebba lead to 6.3 increase in stream flow. The changes in elasticity of rainfall and evapotranspiration implies that climate change will lead to increased rainfall and runoff for hydropower generation. This requires optimizing the increase in rainfall and runoff for improved hydropower generation.