Trend Analysis of Mean Annual Temperature in Sokoto Metropolis Between 1971 And 2020 Using Man-Kendall And Sen’s Slope Estimator

Information on trends and changes in atmospheric conditions over a given region can enhance good policy making to develop strategies to curb heat waves and disaster risk management. The time series temperature data between 1971 and 2020 (50 years) of Sokoto Metropolis was used in this study to identify the trend and slope magnitude in the series. The trend was analyzed using the Mann-Kendal non-parametric test and the Sen’s slope estimator was used to estimate the degree or rate of increase or decrease. Linear regression was employed to evaluate the linear trend in the data and coefficient of variation, CV was used to estimate the level of variability. The decadal trend analysis shows an increasing trend as indicated by the Mann-Kendall’s tau and p-value of +0.48 and 7.8 x 10 -5 (<0.001) respectively. Also, the Sen’s slope estimator was positive and found to be +0.022 oC per year, representing the rate of increase in trend for yearly annual temperature. Furthermore, the results show that the analysis of monthly rainfall has a varied trend of temperature in the dry months. It also shows a positively increasing warming trend for the months of April, May and September while August and December show moderate warming. This study will help the government or policymakers to develop appropriate coping and mitigation strategies for the most vulnerable areas with regards to global warming and climate change.