Predictive Influence of Proposed Rural Grazing Area (RUGA) on Communal Security in Ogun West Senatorial District, Nigeria

This study examines the predictive influence of the Nigerian government's Rural Grazing Area (RUGA) policy on communal security in the Ogun West senatorial district. Despite RUGA's aim to mitigate herder-farmer conflicts by establishing designated grazing areas, the policy faces significant opposition due to ethnic tensions, land use conflicts, and concerns about Fulani herder dominance. Using a mixed-methods approach, data were collected from 500 respondents across five local government districts in Ogun West. Quantitative analysis using regression models revealed that RUGA significantly impacts communal security (R = 0.728, R² = 0.530, p < 0.001), social harmony (B = 0.874, t = 25.537, p < 0.001), community engagement (B = 0.862, t = 29.741, p < 0.001), and ethnocentric, religious, and socioeconomic issues (B = 0.869, t = 29.278, p < 0.001). However, the policy does not significantly predict the readiness of nomads to settle (B = 0.032, p = 0.586) or the preparedness of local people to accept the scheme (B = 0.051, p = 0.366). These findings indicate that while RUGA has the potential to enhance social and community engagement outcomes, its success is hindered by the lack of readiness and acceptance among key stakeholders. The study recommends increased engagement and sensitization efforts to enhance nomads' readiness and local acceptance, ensuring the policy's successful implementation and contribution to inclusive economic development.