Strategic Trade-offs between Graduate and Undergraduate Public-Health E-Learning in Africa: A Multinational Mixed-Methods Analysis

(1) Purpose – Sub-Saharan Africa faces a projected shortfall of 5.3–6.1 million health workers by 2030, yet locally accessible graduate programmes remain scarce. This study evaluates whether a fully online, pan-African Master of Public Health (MPH) offers greater strategic value than a traditional, three-year Bachelor of Public Health (BPH) in closing advanced workforce gaps. (2) Design/methodology/approach – We adopted a mixed-methods design that triangulates (i) an integrative synthesis of secondary datasets from WHO, Africa CDC, UNESCO and national statistics; (ii) competitive landscape mapping of accredited BPH/MPH programmes in ten priority markets (Rwanda, Nigeria, South Africa, Kenya, Ethiopia, Uganda, Ghana, Tanzania, Democratic Republic of Congo and Zambia); (iii) deterministic cost-benefit modelling for an 18-month online MPH versus a three-year online BPH; and (iv) curriculum–competency alignment using content analysis and natural-language processing against WHO Essential Public-Health Functions and Africa CDC frameworks. (3) Findings – The potential applicant pool for an online MPH among practising health professionals is conservatively five-to-ten times larger than the undergraduate market for a BPH. Critical roles—epidemiology, health-policy analysis and biostatistics—require master’s-level competencies that a BPH cannot supply. Fewer than 10 locally accredited online MPH options exist continent-wide, revealing a pronounced market gap. Financial projections show the online MPH breaks even with ~35 learners per cohort and yields a 22 % internal rate of return under conservative tuition scenarios, outperforming the BPH on every profitability metric. Strategically, the MPH aligns with Africa CDC’s “New Public Health Order†and national workforce plans, positioning universities for reputational and partnership gains. Recent African Union commitments to the Health-Workforce Social Compact underscore the urgency: the continent must create or up-skill at least 1.9 million health professionals by 2030 to avert a projected global shortfall of 11 million workers, most of it concentrated in low-income regions. (4) Originality/value – This is the first multi-country desk analysis to juxtapose market demand, competency needs and financial feasibility of an online MPH against an online BPH in Africa. (5) Practical implications – Findings furnish universities, ministries and development partners with an evidence-based roadmap for scaling competency-driven online graduate training as a catalyst for resilient African health systems.