Are Coups Causes or Precursors of Civil Strife?: Assessing the Relationship between Coups Phenomenon and Civil Conflicts in West Africa

In the 21st century, praetorian coups in the West African region have continued to pose a persistent threat to political stability, undermining democratization endeavours and igniting insurgencies. As the new political reality of renewed trend of coups confounds political scholars, there is a need to examine how and why military interventions continue to bedevil the West African region. Using the rational choice theory, this paper assesses the correlation between the coup phenomenon and civil strife in the West African region. The paper argues that coups act both as precursors and outcomes of civil war depending on the contextual environment around them. Conflicts can act as instigators of coups when they act as peace inducing agents, when the government’s victory is in doubt, and as the military anticipates threats to its interests. Conversely, coups have also preceded civil wars as the coup phenomenon and its authoritarian tenets see ethnic wars and fears of ethnic dominance. Additionally, coups carry the risk of the instrumentalization of identity against other identities.