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Can the economic growth of interwar Latvia be estimated by contemporary national accounts?

Author

Listed:
  • Ola Grytten

    (Department of Economics, NHH Norwegian School of Economics Bergen, Norway)

  • Zenonas Norkus

    (Faculty of Philosophy, Institute of Sociology and Social Work, Vilnius University, Vilnius- Lithuania)

  • Jurgita Markevičiūtė

    (Faculty of Philosophy, Institute of Sociology and Social Work, Vilnius University, Vilnius- Lithuania)

  • Jānis Šiliņš

    (Vidzeme University of Applied Sciences, Valmiera, Latvia)

Abstract

The paper provides an examination of interwar Latvia’s national accounts, checking their usability for estimating interwar economic growth performance. According to the authoritative account of Roses and Wolf [(2010). Aggregate growth, 1913–1950. In S. Broadberry, & K. H. O’Rourke (Eds.), The Cambridge economic history of modern Europe, vol 2. 1870 to the present (pp. 183–207). Cambridge UP.], based on indirect estimation methods, Latvia’s GDPpc growth rate from 1929 to 1938 was the highest in Europe. However, according to Aizsilnieks [(1968). Latvijas saimniecības vēsture, 1914–1945. Daugava.] interwar national income estimates show that the Latvian economy stagnated in the 1930s. This paper’s main findings are that applying historical price indices to the existing interwar output estimates supports the stagnation thesis. However, the national income estimates lack validity and reliability due to unpersistent or unknown methodology. Hence, changes in real output cannot be established without new calculations according to the contemporary System of National Accounts (SNA 2008) framework.

Suggested Citation

  • Ola Grytten & Zenonas Norkus & Jurgita Markevičiūtė & Jānis Šiliņš, 2022. "Can the economic growth of interwar Latvia be estimated by contemporary national accounts?," Baltic Journal of Economics, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies, vol. 22(2), pages 90-109.
    • Handle: RePEc:bic:journl:v:22:y:2022:i:2:p:90-109
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    Keywords

    National accounting; national income; economic growth of interwar Latvia; Alfreds Ceichners;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts
    • N14 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Europe: 1913-
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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