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Size and determinants of shadow economies in the Baltic States

Author

Listed:
  • Tālis J. Putniņš

    (Stockholm School of Economics in Riga)

  • Arnis Sauka

    (Stockholm School of Economics in Riga)

Abstract

This study develops and estimates an index of the size of shadow economies in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, and analyses the factors that influence participation in the shadow sector. The index can be used to track shadow economies through time or across sectors and therefore is a useful tool to evaluate the effectiveness of policies aimed ar reducing the size of shadow economies. Our results suggest that the shadow economy in Latvia in 2010 is considerably larger than in neighbouring Estonia and Lithuania. While the shadow economy as a percentage of GDP in Estonia contracted from 2009 to 2010, it expanded in Latvia and Lithuania. An important driver of shadow activity in the Baltic States is entrepreneurs' dissatisfaction with and distrust in the government and the tax system. We also find involvement in the shadow economy is more pervasive among younger firms and firms in the construction sector. The findings of this study have a number of policy implications: (i) the relatively large size of shadow economies in the Baltic States and their different expansion/contraction trends cause significant error in official estimates of GDP and its rates of change; (ii) tax compliance can be encouraged by addressing the high level of dissatisfaction with the tax system and with government (e.g., making tax policy more stable and increasing the transparency with which taxes are spent); and (iii) significant scope exists for all three governments to increase their tax revenues by bringing entrepreneurs 'out of the shadows'.

Suggested Citation

  • Tālis J. Putniņš & Arnis Sauka, 2011. "Size and determinants of shadow economies in the Baltic States," Baltic Journal of Economics, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies, vol. 11(2), pages 5-25, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bic:journl:v:11:y:2011:i:2:p:5-25
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    File URL: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/epdf/10.1080/1406099X.2011.10840498
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Colin C. Williams & Ioana A. Horodnic, 2015. "Explaining and tackling the shadow economy in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania: a tax morale approach," Baltic Journal of Economics, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies, vol. 15(2), pages 81-98.
    2. Friedrich Schneider & Gorana Krstić & Milojko Arsić & Saša Ranđelović, 2015. "What Is the Extent of the Shadow Economy in Serbia?," Contributions to Economics, in: Gorana Krstić & Friedrich Schneider (ed.), Formalizing the Shadow Economy in Serbia, edition 127, chapter 0, pages 47-75, Springer.
    3. Ioana Alexandra Horodnic & Colin C. Williams, 2016. "An evaluation of the shadow economy in Baltic states: a tax morale perspective," International Journal of Entrepreneurship and Small Business, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 28(2/3), pages 339-358.
    4. Jaan Masso & Vladyslav Soloviov & Kerly Espenberg & Inta Mierina, 2019. "Social convergence of the Baltic states within the enlarged EU: Is limited social dialogue an impediment?," Chapters, in: Daniel Vaughan-Whitehead (ed.), Towards Convergence in Europe, chapter 2, pages 35-77, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    5. Salmon Mugoda & Stephen Esaku & Rose Kibuka Nakimu & Edward Bbaale & Robert Read, 2020. "The portrait of Uganda’s informal sector: What main obstacles do the sector face?," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(1), pages 1843255-184, January.
    6. Majid Maddah & Bahareh Sobhani, 2014. "The Effective Factors on Informal Economy in Developing Countries (Panel Data Model)," International Journal of Regional Development, Macrothink Institute, vol. 1(1), pages 12-25, December.
    7. Jekaterina Navickė & Romas Lazutka, 2018. "Distributional Implications of the Economic Development in the Baltics: Reconciling Micro and Macro Perspectives," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 138(1), pages 187-206, July.
    8. Piotr Dybka & Bartosz Olesiński & Marek Rozkrut & Andrzej Torój, 2020. "Measuring the uncertainty of shadow economy estimates using Bayesian and frequentist model averaging," KAE Working Papers 2020-046, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis.
    9. Ligita Gasparėnienė & Rita Remeikienė & Colin C. Williams, 2022. "Unemployment and the Informal Economy," SpringerBriefs in Economics, Springer, number 978-3-030-96687-4, October.
    10. Piotr Dybka & Bartosz Olesiński & Marek Rozkrut & Andrzej Torój, 2023. "Measuring the model uncertainty of shadow economy estimates," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 30(4), pages 1069-1106, August.
    11. Dzemydaitė Giedrė & Savilionytė Ieva, 2017. "The Spread of the Shadow Economy as a Moral Dilemma?," Ekonomika (Economics), Sciendo, vol. 96(3), pages 44-55, January.
    12. Awadh Ahmed Mohammed Gamal & Jauhari Dahalan & K. Kuperan Viswanathan, 2020. "An econometric analysis of the underground economy and tax evasion in Kuwait," International Journal of Business and Globalisation, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 25(3), pages 307-331.
    13. Jaanika Merikull & Tairi Room & Karsten Staehr, 2013. "Perceptions of unreported economic activities in Baltic Firms. Individualistic and non-individualistic motives," Bank of Estonia Working Papers wp2012-8, Bank of Estonia, revised 04 Feb 2013.
    14. Ligita Gasparėnienė & Rita Remeikienė & Colin C. Williams, 2022. "Theorizing the Informal Economy," SpringerBriefs in Economics, in: Unemployment and the Informal Economy, chapter 0, pages 7-60, Springer.
    15. Som Sekhar Bhattacharyya & Andrejs Cˇ irjevskis & Tatjana Põlajeva, 2018. "International Business in Transitional and Emerging Economies: A Perspective of Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia with India," South Asian Journal of Business and Management Cases, , vol. 7(2), pages 144-155, December.
    16. Jekaterina Navicke & Romas Lazutka, 2016. "Work incentives across the income distribution and for model families in Lithuania: 2005-2013," Baltic Journal of Economics, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies, vol. 16(2), pages 175-191.
    17. Omar Ashraf & M. Ali Kemal, 2019. "Exploring the Determinants of Underground Economy of Pakistan," PIDE-Working Papers 2019:163, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.
    18. Anna Kireenko & Yuriy Ivanov & Ekaterina Nevzorova & Olga Polyakova, 2017. "Shadow Economy in the Regions of the Russian Federation and the Ukraine," Springer Proceedings in Business and Economics, in: David Procházka (ed.), New Trends in Finance and Accounting, chapter 0, pages 301-312, Springer.
    19. Konstantins Benkovskis, 2018. "Misallocation, productivity and fragmentation of production: the case of Latvia," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 49(2), pages 187-206, June.
    20. Gorana Krstić, 2015. "The Concept of the Survey of Businesses and Entrepreneurs Operating Informally," Contributions to Economics, in: Gorana Krstić & Friedrich Schneider (ed.), Formalizing the Shadow Economy in Serbia, edition 127, chapter 0, pages 13-19, Springer.
    21. Dmitry Fedotov, 2021. "Tax burden and shadow economy growth in Russian regions," Journal of Tax Reform, Graduate School of Economics and Management, Ural Federal University, vol. 7(3), pages 284-301.
    22. Dennis Nchor, 2021. "Shadow economies and tax evasion: The case of the Czech Republic, Poland and Hungary," Society and Economy, Akadémiai Kiadó, Hungary, vol. 43(1), pages 21-37, March.
    23. Gorana Krstić & Branko Radulović, 2015. "Shadow Economy in the Business and Entrepreneurial Sectors," Contributions to Economics, in: Gorana Krstić & Friedrich Schneider (ed.), Formalizing the Shadow Economy in Serbia, edition 127, chapter 0, pages 77-99, Springer.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    shadow economy; tax evasion; Estonia; Latvia; Lithuania;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E26 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Informal Economy; Underground Economy
    • H26 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Tax Evasion and Avoidance
    • D22 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
    • C43 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Index Numbers and Aggregation
    • C83 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Survey Methods; Sampling Methods

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