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How does the Banque de France produce inflation forecasts?
[Comment fait-on une prévision d’inflation à la Banque de France ?]

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  • Youssef Ulgazi

Abstract

According to the Banque de France's projection, French inflation measured by the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) will gradually return towards 2% in 2025. How is this projection produced? This post describes our main tools and shows how, by combining modelling and expert judgement, we produce disaggregated inflation forecasts that are consistent with the overall macroeconomic scenario. Selon la projection de la Banque de France, l’inflation française mesurée par l’indice des prix à la consommation harmonisé (IPCH) reviendrait progressivement vers 2% en 2025. Comment cette projection est-elle réalisée ? Ce billet décrit nos principaux outils et montre comment, en combinant modélisation et jugement d’expert, nous produisons des prévisions d’inflation désagrégées et cohérentes avec le scénario macroéconomique d’ensemble.

Suggested Citation

  • Youssef Ulgazi, . "How does the Banque de France produce inflation forecasts? [Comment fait-on une prévision d’inflation à la Banque de France ?]," Eco Notepad (in progress), Banque de France.
    • Handle: RePEc:bfr:econot:320
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