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The Quantitative Significance of the Lucas Critique: Comment

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  • Hamilton, James D

Abstract

A vector autoregression is a reduced-form representation, and, therefore, would be expected to change when any structural equation in the system changes, regardless of whether economic decisions are forward-looking. Even so, a dynamic simulation of a model with unit roots will exhibit large cumulative errors, making it difficult to detect whether structural change has indeed occurred.

Suggested Citation

  • Hamilton, James D, 1991. "The Quantitative Significance of the Lucas Critique: Comment," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 9(4), pages 388-389, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:bes:jnlbes:v:9:y:1991:i:4:p:388-89
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. repec:bla:restud:v:57:y:1990:i:1:p:99-125 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Gregory, Allan W, 1994. "Testing for Cointegration in Linear Quadratic Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(3), pages 347-360, July.
    3. Hansen, Bruce E., 1992. "Efficient estimation and testing of cointegrating vectors in the presence of deterministic trends," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 87-121.
    4. Engle, R. F. & Granger, C. W. J. (ed.), 1991. "Long-Run Economic Relationships: Readings in Cointegration," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198283393.
    5. Engle, Robert F. & Yoo, Byung Sam, 1987. "Forecasting and testing in co-integrated systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 143-159, May.
    6. Phillips, Peter C B & Ouliaris, S, 1990. "Asymptotic Properties of Residual Based Tests for Cointegration," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 165-193, January.
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