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The Demand for Lotto: The Role of Conscious Selection

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  • Farrell, Lisa, et al

Abstract

This article presents estimates of the elasticity of demand for lottery tickets using time series data in which there is variation in the expected value of a lottery ticket induced by rollovers. An important feature of our data is that there are far more rollovers than expected given the lottery design. We find strong evidence that individuals do not choose their lottery numbers uniformly from a uniform distribution--that is, conscious selection. We use our estimates to derive the inverse supply function for the industry, and this enables us to identify the demand elasticity. We find the price elasticity to be close to unity, which implies that the operator is revenue maximizing--which is the regulator's objective.

Suggested Citation

  • Farrell, Lisa, et al, 2000. "The Demand for Lotto: The Role of Conscious Selection," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 18(2), pages 228-241, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:bes:jnlbes:v:18:y:2000:i:2:p:228-41
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Jen-Hung Wang & Larry Tzeng & Junji Tien, 2006. "Willingness to pay and the demand for lotto," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(10), pages 1207-1216.
    2. Raviv, Yaron & Virag, Gabor, 2009. "Gambling by auctions," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 369-378, May.
    3. Mauro Guillén & Adrian Tschoegl, 2002. "Banking on Gambling: Banks and Lottery-Linked Deposit Accounts," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 21(3), pages 219-231, June.
    4. Melisa Bubonya & David P. Byrne, 2015. "Supplying Slot Machines to the Poor," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2015n15, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    5. Kent Grote & Victor Matheson, 2011. "The Economics of Lotteries: An Annotated Bibliography," Working Papers 1110, College of the Holy Cross, Department of Economics.
    6. Humphreys, Brad & Perez, Levi, 2011. "Lottery Participants and Revenues: An International Survey of Economic Research on Lotteries," Working Papers 2011-17, University of Alberta, Department of Economics.
    7. David Paton & Donald S. Siegel & Leighton Vaughan Williams, 2002. "A Policy Response To The E--Commerce Revolution: The Case Of Betting Taxation In The UK," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(480), pages 296-314, June.
    8. Tong V. Wang & Rogier J. D. Potter van Loon & Martijn J. van den Assem & Dennie van Dolder, 2016. "Number preferences in lotteries," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 11(3), pages 243-259, May.
    9. Ursula Hauser-Rethaller & Ulrich König, 2002. "Parimutuel Lotteries: Gamblers' Behavior and the Demand for Tickets," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 3(2), pages 223-245, May.
    10. Kathryn L. Combs & Jaebeom Kim & Jim Landers & John A. Spry, 2016. "The Responsiveness of Casino Revenue to the Casino Tax Rate," Public Budgeting & Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(3), pages 22-44, September.
    11. Kent Grote & Victor Matheson, 2011. "The Economics of Lotteries: A Survey of the Literature," Working Papers 1109, College of the Holy Cross, Department of Economics.
    12. repec:pal:jorsoc:v:54:y:2003:i:1:d:10.1057_palgrave.jors.2601484 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Chen, Shu-Heng & Chie, Bin-Tzong, 2008. "Lottery markets design, micro-structure, and macro-behavior: An ACE approach," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 463-480, August.
    14. Michael A. Trousdale & Richard A. Dunn, 2014. "Demand for Lottery Gambling: Evaluating Price Sensitivity Within a Portfolio of Lottery Games," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association, vol. 67(3), pages 595-620, September.
    15. R Hartley & G Lanot, 2003. "On the design of lottery games," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 54(1), pages 89-100, January.
    16. David Forrest & O. David Gulley & Robert Simmons, 2004. "Substitution between games in the UK national lottery," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(7), pages 645-651.

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