IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/beg/journl/v4y2025i1p49-64.html

Asymmetric effects of global oil price on food insecurity in Nigeria: A NARDL approach

Author

Listed:
  • G.C. Aye

    (Joseph Sarwuan Tarka University)

  • M.G. Ugwuh

    (Joseph Sarwuan Tarka University)

  • J.A.C. Ezihe

    (Joseph Sarwuan Tarka University)

Abstract

This study investigates the short-run and long-run asymmetric effects of world oil price fluctuations on food insecurity in Nigeria, an oil-exporting country that paradoxically struggles with local oil refining and remains heavily reliant on fuel imports. The problem addressed is the disconnect between Nigeria’s status as a crude oil exporter and its vulnerability to global oil price shocks, which exacerbate food insecurity through inflationary pressures, rising transportation costs, and exchange rate volatility. Using a Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) model, we analyze how positive and negative changes in oil prices affect food insecurity, while accounting for exchange rate movements and inflation from 1970-2020. The results reveal significant asymmetric effects, with negative oil price shocks having a more pronounced effect on food insecurity than positive shocks, both in the short and long run. Both positive and negative shocks consistently worsen food insecurity, suggesting that oil price volatility intensifies the fragility of Nigeria’s food systems. The error correction mechanism indicates a fast speed of adjustment to long-run equilibrium. These findings highlight the need for policies to mitigate the adverse effects of global oil price volatility on food security in Nigeria, including stabilizing exchange rates, controlling inflation, and developing local oil refining capacity to reduce the economy's reliance on fuel imports. Strengthening food systems through diversification and sustainable agricultural practices is also critical.

Suggested Citation

  • G.C. Aye & M.G. Ugwuh & J.A.C. Ezihe, 2025. "Asymmetric effects of global oil price on food insecurity in Nigeria: A NARDL approach," Journal of Economic Policy and Management Issues, JEPMI, vol. 4(1), pages 49-64.
    • Handle: RePEc:beg:journl:v:4:y:2025:i:1:p:49-64
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://jepmi.aesri.org/RePEc/beg/beg-journl/RePEc-Version-Published-Paper-4-Aye-et-al.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. McPhail, Lihong Lu & Du, Xiaodong & Muhammad, Andrew, 2012. "Disentangling Corn Price Volatility: The Role of Global Demand, Speculation, and Energy," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 44(3), pages 401-410, August.
    2. repec:bla:ecpoli:v:29:y:2014:i:80:p:691-747 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Olasunkanmi, Oseni Isiaq & Oladele, Kinbode Sakiru, 2018. "Oil price shock and agricultural commodity prices in Nigeria: A Non-Linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) Approach," African Journal of Economic Review, African Journal of Economic Review, vol. 6(2), July.
    4. Gyamerah, Samuel Asante & Agbi-Kaiser, Henry Ofoe & Gil-Alana, Luis Alberiko, 2024. "Do climate policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk transmit opportunity or threat to the green market? Evidence from non-linear ARDL," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 30(C).
    5. Fardous Alom & Bert D. Ward & Baiding Hu, 2013. "Macroeconomic effects of world oil and food price shocks in Asia and Pacific economies: application of SVAR models," OPEC Energy Review, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, vol. 37(3), pages 327-372, September.
    6. Maros Ivanic & Will Martin, 2008. "Implications of higher global food prices for poverty in low‐income countries1," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 39(s1), pages 405-416, November.
    7. Christiane Baumeister & Gert Peersman, 2013. "The Role Of Time‐Varying Price Elasticities In Accounting For Volatility Changes In The Crude Oil Market," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(7), pages 1087-1109, November.
    8. Apergis, Nicholas & Miller, Stephen M., 2009. "Do structural oil-market shocks affect stock prices?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 569-575, July.
    9. Christiane Baumeister & Lutz Kilian, 2014. "Do oil price increases cause higher food prices? [Biofuels, binding constraints, and agricultural commodity price volatility]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 29(80), pages 691-747.
    10. Karel Janda & Ladislav Kristoufek, 2018. "The Relationship Between Fuel, Biofuel and Food Prices: Methods and Outcomes," Working Papers IES 2018/32, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Oct 2018.
    11. Fowowe, Babajide, 2016. "Do oil prices drive agricultural commodity prices? Evidence from South Africa," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 149-157.
    12. Eleni Zafeiriou & Garyfallos Arabatzis & Paraskevi Karanikola & Stilianos Tampakis & Stavros Tsiantikoudis, 2018. "Agricultural Commodities and Crude Oil Prices: An Empirical Investigation of Their Relationship," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-11, April.
    13. repec:eme:hppsss:v:25:y:2009:i:2:p:127-141 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Nazlioglu, Saban & Erdem, Cumhur & Soytas, Ugur, 2013. "Volatility spillover between oil and agricultural commodity markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 658-665.
    15. Zhang, Chuanguo & Qu, Xuqin, 2015. "The effect of global oil price shocks on China's agricultural commodities," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 354-364.
    16. Fernando Avalos & Marco Jacopo Lombardi, 2015. "The biofuel connection: impact of US regulation on oil and food prices," BIS Working Papers 487, Bank for International Settlements.
    17. Chen, Sheng-Tung & Kuo, Hsiao-I & Chen, Chi-Chung, 2010. "Modeling the relationship between the oil price and global food prices," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(8), pages 2517-2525, August.
    18. Ivanic, Maros & Martin, Will, 2008. "Implications of higher global food prices for poverty in low-income countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4594, The World Bank.
    19. Alghalith, Moawia, 2010. "The interaction between food prices and oil prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1520-1522, November.
    20. Salah Abosedra & Ali Fakih & Sajal Ghosh & Kakali Kanjilal, 2023. "Financial development and business cycle volatility nexus in the UAE: Evidence from non‐linear regime‐shift and asymmetric tests," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(3), pages 2729-2741, July.
    21. Timmer, C. Peter, 2000. "The macro dimensions of food security: economic growth, equitable distribution, and food price stability," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 283-295, June.
    22. Esmaeili, Abdoulkarim & Shokoohi, Zainab, 2011. "Assessing the effect of oil price on world food prices: Application of principal component analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 1022-1025, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dalheimer, Bernhard & Herwartz, Helmut & Lange, Alexander, 2021. "The threat of oil market turmoils to food price stability in Sub-Saharan Africa," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    2. Raza, Syed Ali & Guesmi, Khaled & Belaid, Fateh & Shah, Nida, 2022. "Time-frequency causality and connectedness between oil price shocks and the world food prices," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    3. Hanif, Waqas & Areola Hernandez, Jose & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2021. "Tail dependence risk and spillovers between oil and food prices," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 195-209.
    4. Wang, Yudong & Wu, Chongfeng & Yang, Li, 2014. "Oil price shocks and agricultural commodity prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 22-35.
    5. Cheng, Sheng & Cao, Yan, 2019. "On the relation between global food and crude oil prices: An empirical investigation in a nonlinear framework," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 422-432.
    6. Sun, Yunpeng & Gao, Pengpeng & Raza, Syed Ali & Shah, Nida & Sharif, Arshian, 2023. "The asymmetric effects of oil price shocks on the world food prices: Fresh evidence from quantile-on-quantile regression approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 270(C).
    7. Riza Radmehr & Shida Rastegari Henneberry, 2020. "Energy Price Policies and Food Prices: Empirical Evidence from Iran," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(15), pages 1-15, August.
    8. Kang, Sang Hoon & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Albulescu, Claudiu Tiberiu & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2019. "Exploring the time-frequency connectedness and network among crude oil and agriculture commodities V1," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    9. Atik, Zehra & Guloglu, Bulent & Ulussever, Talat, 2024. "Nonlinear tail dependence between energy and agricultural commodities," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    10. Albulescu, Claudiu Tiberiu & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Ji, Qiang, 2020. "Copula-based local dependence among energy, agriculture and metal commodities markets," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).
    11. Karel Janda & Ladislav Kristoufek, 2019. "The Relationship Between Fuel and Food Prices: Methods, Outcomes, and Lessons for Commodity Price Risk Management," CAMA Working Papers 2019-20, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    12. Luo, Jiawen & Ji, Qiang, 2018. "High-frequency volatility connectedness between the US crude oil market and China's agricultural commodity markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 424-438.
    13. Balcilar, Mehmet & Gabauer, David & Umar, Zaghum, 2021. "Crude Oil futures contracts and commodity markets: New evidence from a TVP-VAR extended joint connectedness approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    14. Cao, Yan & Cheng, Sheng, 2021. "Impact of COVID-19 outbreak on multi-scale asymmetric spillovers between food and oil prices," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    15. Korhan K. Gokmenoglu & Hasan Güngör & Festus Victor Bekun, 2021. "Revisiting the linkage between oil and agricultural commodity prices: Panel evidence from an Agrarian state," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(4), pages 5610-5620, October.
    16. Claudiu Albulescu & Aviral Tiwari & Qiang Ji, 2020. "Copula-based local dependence between energy, agriculture and metal commodity markets," Papers 2003.04007, arXiv.org.
    17. Yip, Pick Schen & Brooks, Robert & Do, Hung Xuan & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2020. "Dynamic volatility spillover effects between oil and agricultural products," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    18. Stewart, Shamar L. & Isengildina Massa, Olga, 2024. "Food & Oil Price Volatility Dynamics: Insights from a TVP-SVAR-DCC-MIDAS Model," 2024 Annual Meeting, July 28-30, New Orleans, LA 343936, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    19. Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farhad & Rasoulinezhad, Ehsan & Yoshino, Naoyuki, 2019. "Energy and Food Security: Linkages through Price Volatility," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 796-806.
    20. Ni, Guohua & Teng, Man & Chen, Zhenling & Wu, Yunsong & He, Wenjia & Su, Bin, 2024. "Exploring the impacts of major events on the global oil and food markets," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:beg:journl:v:4:y:2025:i:1:p:49-64. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Prof Nicholas M Odhiambo (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.