Factors of industrial growth in the Republic of Kazakhstan: investments, innovations and modernization

The modern conditions of structural transformations of the Republic of Kazakhstan economy accompanied by the transition from a raw material model to an innovation-oriented development. Therefore, the identification of factors determining the dynamics of industrial growth is becoming a key area of scientific research. This analysis concerns with the strategic objectives of increasing the effectiveness of state investment and industrial policy, the practical challenges associated with reducing inter-regional disparities, and accelerating the modernisation of production facilities. Increasing the effectiveness of state investment and industrial policy, reducing interregional imbalances, and accelerating the modernisation of the national economy in terms of the transition to an innovation-oriented growth model provide the relevance of the research. The purpose of the research is to identify and quantify the relationships between the main drivers of industrial development, including investments in fixed assets, commissioning of new fixed assets, and the production of innovative products. The objectives of the research are as follows: correlation and regression analysis of these factors, the analysis of their impact on industrial production, verifying of the statistical significance of the obtained dependencies, identification of the institutional constraints, and ways to overcome them. The methodological base of the study implements the official statistical data from the Bureau of National Statistics of the Republic of Kazakhstan, 2017-2024. To comprehensive assessment of the impact of these factors on industrial production, the research uses the methods of paired correlation analysis, multiple linear regression, and regional comparison. To determine the statistical significance of the dependencies, we consider the p-levels, the institutional and structural features of the industrial sector. An analysis shows a strong positive relationship between investments in fixed assets and industrial production (r = 0.8738), a moderate relationship between the introduction of new fixed assets and production growth (r = 0.3991), and a significant role of innovative products in shaping industrial growth (r = 0.7976). The scientific novelty of the research consists in the integration of the innovation factor into a single quantitative model of industrial growth, and identification the specifics of the temporary distribution of the effect of capital investments. This approach clarifies the structure of the determinants of industrial development, and identifies institutional constraints to prevent their implementation. The practical significance of the results includes their applicability for improving the mechanisms of industrial and investment policy, developing effective modernisation strategies, and stimulating research and development activities. The findings help to establish long term regional development programs, government support tools, and conditions for strengthening the competitiveness of Kazakhstan’s industrial sector.