Econometric modelling of the impact of government support measures on investment activity and profitability of agriculture

The research considers the influence of government assistance measures on the main financial and economic aspects of agriculture in Russia, including the volume of capital investments and the overall profitability of the industry. The topic is particularly relevant due to the need for an accurate assessment of efficient budget money spending in limited funding and external problems such as economic constraints and weather risks. The research examines the effectiveness of subsidies, special payments, and tax breaks to promote investment and improve the financial performance of agricultural enterprises. Based on official Rosstat statistics and reports from the Ministry of Agriculture of Russia, we developed a special mathematical model based on aggregated data from ten Russian regions, 2010-2024. We also used the least squares approach adjusted for regional specifics. According to the results, there is a significant and statistically confirmed positive effect: the correlation coefficient for capital investment is 0.8029, for profitability – 0.0001. The model includes additional factors (local GDP and price growth) as effective ones in terms of this particular support. The research considers the territorial differences and time limits to suggest the practical guidance on improvement of existing approaches. The results are useful for effective development of the national agribusiness strategy, with an emphasis on targeted investments in new technologies. In general, the research helps to develop quantitative analysis tools in the agricultural sector and is prospective in terms of nonlinear dependencies and geography.