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Fusiones y adquisiciones en América Latina: un análisis de los factores macroeconómicos

Author

Listed:
  • Lina M. Cortés

    ()

  • John J. García

    ()

  • Brayan Aristizábal López

    ()

Abstract

Este estudio analiza la influencia de variables macroeconómicas, en especial del ciclo económico, sobre el número de fusiones y adquisiciones (FyA) en Latinoamérica entre 1995 y 2014. Utilizando los modelos PCSE y binomial negativo, se encuentra que las variables macroeconómicas en el país objetivo (target) tienen un efecto sobre las FyA y explican alrededor de un tercio del cambio en la actividad. Específicamente, se encuentra que el ciclo económico, la liquidez y la depreciación tienen un efecto positivo sobre dichas transacciones, mientras que la inflación tiene un efecto negativo. Además, se observa que el impacto del ciclo económico es mucho mayor cuando se trata de transacciones transfronterizas y que, corrigiendo problemas de asimetría del ciclo, durante las épocas de expansión la actividad de FyA es mayor comparativamente con períodos de recesión. ****** The present study analyzes the influence of macroeconomic variables, especially the economic cycle, on the number of FyA in Latin America between 1995 and 2014. Using PCSE and Negative Binomial models, it is found that macroeconomic variables at target country level have an effect on FyA and explain around one-third of the activity variation. Specifically, it is noted that the economic cycle, liquidity and depreciation have a positive effect on such transactions, while inflation has a negative effect. In addition, it is observed that the impact of the economic cycle is much greater when dealing with cross-border transactions and, after correcting problems of business cycle symmetry, FyA activity is larger during times of expansion compared to recession periods.

Suggested Citation

  • Lina M. Cortés & John J. García & Brayan Aristizábal López, 2018. "Fusiones y adquisiciones en América Latina: un análisis de los factores macroeconómicos," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 36(86), pages 178-192, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:bdr:ensayo:v:36:y:2018:i:86:p:178-192
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fusiones y adquisiciones; Variables macroeconómicas; Ciclo económico; Mergers and acquisitions; Macroeconomic variables; Economic cycle;

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • G34 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Mergers; Acquisitions; Restructuring; Corporate Governance
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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