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Crédito privado, crédito bancario y producto interno bruto: evidencia para una muestra suramericana

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  • Víctor Alexander Díaz

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Abstract

El presente artículo examina las relaciones de causalidad entre el crédito privado, el crédito bancario y el producto interno bruto en 4 economías suramericanas: Argentina, Brasil, Colombia y Perú. Se emplea el test de descomposición de Geweke para estimar el grado de causalidad entre las variables, y se analizan, con modelos vectoriales autorregresivos y modelos de corrección de error, las relaciones de corto y largo plazo en el período 1994-2013 con datos trimestrales. Los resultados indican que existe una causalidad bidireccional entre las variables en Argentina, Brasil Colombia y Perú. En general, las medidas crediticias ejercen una influencia positiva sobre el producto interno bruto, excepto en Argentina, donde el proceso de liberación financiera llevado a cabo causó grandes trabas al financiamiento de las actividades productivas de los microempresarios.

Suggested Citation

  • Víctor Alexander Díaz, 2014. "Crédito privado, crédito bancario y producto interno bruto: evidencia para una muestra suramericana," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 32(73), pages 104-126, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:bdr:ensayo:v:32:y:2014:i:73:p:104-126
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    Keywords

    Crédito privado; producto interno bruto; crédito bancario; test de descomposición de Geweke; modelos vectoriales autorregresivos;

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • O16 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance

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