Are Bankers Successful in Forecasting the Direction of Credit Volume and Interest rates?
The aim of this study is to compare directional expectations of credit volume and interest rate of the banking sector with realized observations and to test whether bankers are successful in forecasting the direction of credit volume and interest rates. Using data from the Banking Regulation and Supervision Agency’s Survey on expectations of bank managers, it is observed that the quantified expectations capture the movement of the direction of the credit volume and interest rates. Directional accuracy tests reveal that for some survey questions, the hypothesis on the independency of the direction of predicted change and the actual change cannot be rejected whereas for others the independency hypothesis is rejected. On the other hand, the analyses indicate that the success of forecasts does not differ when c redit volumes/interest rates rise or fall.
Volume (Year): 6 (2012)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: +90-312-455 65 00
Fax: +90-312-424 08 77
Web page: http://www.bddk.org.tr/WebSitesi/turkce/Raporlar/BDDK_Dergi/BDDK_Dergi.aspxEmail:
More information through EDIRC
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bdd:journl:v:6:y:2012:i:1:p:81-102. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zafer Kovancý)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.