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Are Bankers Successful in Forecasting the Direction of Credit Volume and Interest rates?




The aim of this study is to compare directional expectations of credit volume and interest rate of the banking sector with realized observations and to test whether bankers are successful in forecasting the direction of credit volume and interest rates. Using data from the Banking Regulation and Supervision Agency’s Survey on expectations of bank managers, it is observed that the quantified expectations capture the movement of the direction of the credit volume and interest rates. Directional accuracy tests reveal that for some survey questions, the hypothesis on the independency of the direction of predicted change and the actual change cannot be rejected whereas for others the independency hypothesis is rejected. On the other hand, the analyses indicate that the success of forecasts does not differ when c redit volumes/interest rates rise or fall.

Suggested Citation

  • Defne MUTLUER KURUL, 2012. "Are Bankers Successful in Forecasting the Direction of Credit Volume and Interest rates?," Journal of BRSA Banking and Financial Markets, Banking Regulation and Supervision Agency, vol. 6(1), pages 81-102.
  • Handle: RePEc:bdd:journl:v:6:y:2012:i:1:p:81-102

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Evangelos Drimbetas & Nikolaos Sariannidis & Nicos Porfiris, 2007. "The effect of derivatives trading on volatility of the underlying asset: evidence from the Greek stock market," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(2), pages 139-148.
    2. Eric V. Clifton, 1985. "The currency futures market and interbank foreign exchange trading," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 5(3), pages 375-384, September.
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    4. Engle, Robert F & Ng, Victor K, 1993. " Measuring and Testing the Impact of News on Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1749-1778, December.
    5. Cox, Charles C, 1976. "Futures Trading and Market Information," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1215-1237, December.
    6. Bray, Margaret M, 1981. "Futures Trading, Rational Expectations, and the Efficient Markets Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(3), pages 575-596, May.
    7. Pierluigi Bologna & Laura Cavallo, 2002. "Does the introduction of stock index futures effectively reduce stock market volatility? Is the 'futures effect' immediate? Evidence from the Italian stock exchange using GARCH," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(3), pages 183-192.
    8. Danthine, Jean-Pierre, 1978. "Information, futures prices, and stabilizing speculation," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 79-98, February.
    9. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
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    More about this item


    Expectations; Surveys; Directional accuracy; Credit volume; Interest rates.;

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C40 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - General
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General


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