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Measuring Inflation Expectations in Argentina: Economic Analysts versus Financial Markets

Author

Listed:
  • Patricio J. Temperley

    (Central Bank of Argentina)

Abstract

Inflation in Argentina over the past few years has been high and volatile, making it increasingly important to forecast it accurately in the short term. This paper compares the predictive power of monthly inflation projections made by economic consultants surveyed by the Central Bank through the Market Expectations Survey (REM) and implicit inflation (break-even) in financial markets, derived from Nelson-Siegel-Svensson models on zero-coupon curves. The results suggest that REM expectations were a better reference for forecasting the evolution of inflation in Argentina in the short term during 2020-2023.

Suggested Citation

  • Patricio J. Temperley, 2024. "Measuring Inflation Expectations in Argentina: Economic Analysts versus Financial Markets," Ensayos Económicos, Central Bank of Argentina, Economic Research Department, vol. 1(84), pages 160-189, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:bcr:ensayo:v:1:y:2024:i:84:p:160-189
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    File URL: https://investigacionesconomicas.bcra.gob.ar/ensayos_economicos_bcra/article/view/673/561
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    inflation expectations; implicit inflation; market surveys; zero-coupon curves;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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