IDEAS home Printed from
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Bills and Coins Daily Demand Forecast

  • Diego Elías


    (Central Bank of Argentina, UADE)

  • Matías Vicens


    (Central Bank of Argentina)

Registered author(s):

    An accurate liquidity forecast is necessary for an effective implementation of monetary policy. Its quality is determined by the quality of its components: the projected demand for bank reserves and of the, so called, autonomous monetary factors, such as the demand for bills and coins of the public, the monetary effect of public sector and external sector operations, and some operations with the financial sector. The objective of the paper is to improve one component of this process, the daily forecast of the short term demand for bills and coins. Therefore, two models, that treat calendar effects, business day effects, and annual and monthly seasonal effects, were estimated. Both showed a good short-term forecasting performance.

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

    File URL:
    File Function: Spanish version (versión en Español)
    Download Restriction: no

    Article provided by Central Bank of Argentina, Economic Research Department in its journal Ensayos Económicos.

    Volume (Year): 1 (2012)
    Issue (Month): 65-66 (September)
    Pages: 23-39

    in new window

    Handle: RePEc:bcr:ensayo:v:1:y:2012:i:65-66:p:23-39
    Contact details of provider: Postal: Reconquista 266 - C1003ABF - Buenos Aires
    Phone: (54-11) 4348-3582
    Fax: (54-11) 4348-3794
    Web page:

    More information through EDIRC

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

    as in new window
    1. Clements,Michael & Hendry,David, 1998. "Forecasting Economic Time Series," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521634809, October.
    2. Alberto Cabrero & Gonzalo Camba-Mendez & Astrid Hirsch & Fernando Nieto, 2002. "Modelling the daily banknotes in circulation in the context of the liquidity management of the European Central Bank," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0211, Banco de Espa�a.
    3. Harvey, Andrew & Koopman, Siem Jan & Riani, Marco, 1997. "The Modeling and Seasonal Adjustment of Weekly Observations," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 15(3), pages 354-68, July.
    4. Cabrero, Alberto & Camba-Méndez, Gonzalo & Hirsch, Astrid & Nieto, Fernando, 2002. "Modelling the daily banknotes in circulation in the context of the liquidity management of the European Central Bank," Working Paper Series 0142, European Central Bank.
    5. Pierce, David A & Grupe, Michael R & Cleveland, William P, 1984. "Seasonal Adjustment of the Weekly Monetary Aggregates: A Model-based Approach," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 2(3), pages 260-70, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bcr:ensayo:v:1:y:2012:i:65-66:p:23-39. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Federico Grillo)

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.