IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bcr/ensayo/v1y2012i65-66p23-39.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Bills and Coins Daily Demand Forecast

Author

Listed:
  • Diego Elías

    () (Central Bank of Argentina, UADE)

  • Matías Vicens

    () (Central Bank of Argentina)

Abstract

An accurate liquidity forecast is necessary for an effective implementation of monetary policy. Its quality is determined by the quality of its components: the projected demand for bank reserves and of the, so called, autonomous monetary factors, such as the demand for bills and coins of the public, the monetary effect of public sector and external sector operations, and some operations with the financial sector. The objective of the paper is to improve one component of this process, the daily forecast of the short term demand for bills and coins. Therefore, two models, that treat calendar effects, business day effects, and annual and monthly seasonal effects, were estimated. Both showed a good short-term forecasting performance.

Suggested Citation

  • Diego Elías & Matías Vicens, 2012. "Bills and Coins Daily Demand Forecast," Ensayos Económicos, Central Bank of Argentina, Economic Research Department, vol. 1(65-66), pages 23-39, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:bcr:ensayo:v:1:y:2012:i:65-66:p:23-39
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.bcra.gov.ar/pdfs/investigaciones/65-66_Elias.pdf
    File Function: Spanish version (versión en Español)
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alberto Cabrero & Gonzalo Camba-Mendez & Astrid Hirsch & Fernando Nieto, 2009. "Modelling the daily banknotes in circulation in the context of the liquidity management of the European Central Bank," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(3), pages 194-217.
    2. Harvey, Andrew & Koopman, Siem Jan & Riani, Marco, 1997. "The Modeling and Seasonal Adjustment of Weekly Observations," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 15(3), pages 354-368, July.
    3. Clements,Michael & Hendry,David, 1998. "Forecasting Economic Time Series," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521634809, March.
    4. Pierce, David A & Grupe, Michael R & Cleveland, William P, 1984. "Seasonal Adjustment of the Weekly Monetary Aggregates: A Model-based Approach," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 2(3), pages 260-270, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    bills and coins demand; daily projections; forecasting; monetary policy;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bcr:ensayo:v:1:y:2012:i:65-66:p:23-39. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Federico Grillo). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/bcraaar.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.