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The World in Balance Sheet Recession

Author

Listed:
  • Richard Koo

    (Nomura Research Institute)

Abstract

There is quite a bit of confusion in the policy circles, in the academic circles and also in the markets regarding the international economic situation unleashed by the 2007-2008 crisis. And, as there is so much confusion, the economic policy responses have been largely inconsistent, not only in the United States but also all around the world, and this might be prolonging the recession unnecessarily. However, what we are currently going through happened in Japan exactly 15 years ago. What is happening now is that, after the bursting of the bubble, the private sector is deleveraging or reducing its debt to a minimum. This is called a balance sheet recession. And, in this type of recession, cutting the interest rate to zero and increasing the monetary base do not translate into an improvement of credit to the private sector and into a recovery of economic activity. The monetary policy becomes ineffective. As shown by the Japanese experience, the response to prevent the collapse of economic activity lies in the fiscal policy, i.e. the government should increase spending by financing itself with the savings the private sector generates in order to deleverage. Only after the balance sheets have been repaired and the private sector is willing to, and may, get into debt, should the government start to cut its budget deficit.

Suggested Citation

  • Richard Koo, 2011. "The World in Balance Sheet Recession," Ensayos Económicos, Central Bank of Argentina, Economic Research Department, vol. 1(63), pages 7-39, July - Se.
  • Handle: RePEc:bcr:ensayo:v:1:y:2011:i:63:p:7-39
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    File URL: http://www.bcra.gov.ar/pdfs/investigaciones/63_Koo.pdf
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    Citations

    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. ¿Está el mundo en una recesión de balances?
      by Adrián Ravier in Punto de Vista Economico on 2012-05-16 23:46:22

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Mauro Napoletano & Andrea Roventini & Jean-Luc Gaffard, 2015. "Time varying fiscal multipliers in an agent-based model with credit rationing," Sciences Po publications 2015-25, Sciences Po.
    2. Jiří Štekláč & Miroslav Titze, 2016. "Udržitelnost dluhového financování státu a její interakce s kvantitativním uvolňováním: případ USA, UK a Japonska v letech 2000-2014
      [Government Debt Financing Sustainability and Its Interaction wi
      ," Politická ekonomie, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2016(3), pages 293-318.
    3. Pascal Seppecher & Isabelle Salle, 2015. "Deleveraging crises and deep recessions: a behavioural approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(34-35), pages 3771-3790, July.
    4. Li, Cheng, 2017. "China’s Household Balance Sheet: Accounting Issues, Wealth Accumulation, and Risk Diagnosis," MPRA Paper 79838, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Christoph A. Schaltegger & Martin Weder, 2013. "Will Europe Face A Lost Decade? A Comparison With Japan's Economic Crisis," CREMA Working Paper Series 2013-03, Center for Research in Economics, Management and the Arts (CREMA).
    6. Francesco Saraceno, 2016. "When Keynes goes to Brussels : a New Fiscal Rule for the EMU ?," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2016-32, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    7. repec:agr:journl:v:3(612):y:2017:i:3(612):p:97-114 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Alfred Kleinknecht, 2017. "Supply-side labour market reforms: a neglected cause of the productivity crisis," Working Papers 0027, ASTRIL - Associazione Studi e Ricerche Interdisciplinari sul Lavoro.
    9. Kleczka, Mitja, 2015. "Monetary Policy, Fiscal Policy, and Secular Stagnation at the Zero Lower Bound. A View on the Eurozone," MPRA Paper 67228, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. repec:voj:journl:v:63:y:2016:i:2:p:195-210 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Alfredo Calcagno, 2012. "Can austerity work?," Review of Keynesian Economics, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 1(0), pages 24-36.
    12. Mauro Napoletano & Andrea Roventini & Jean Luc Gaffard, 2015. "Toward a low carbon growth in Mexico : is a double dividend possible ? A dynamic general equilibrium assessment," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2015-25, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    13. Stefan Behrendt, 2017. "Unconventional Monetary Policy Effects on Bank Lending in the Euro Area," Jena Economic Research Papers 2017-002, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
    14. Tatiana Cesaroni & Riccardo De Bonis & Luigi Infante, 2017. "On the determinants of firms’ financial surpluses and deficits," IFC Bulletins chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Statistical implications of the new financial landscape, volume 43 Bank for International Settlements.
    15. Zoltán Szalai, 2012. "A crisis of crisis management? Debates over fiscal adjustments in the European Monetary Union," MNB Bulletin (discontinued), Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary), vol. 7(3), pages 57-66, October.
    16. Andreas Hardhaug Olsen, 2015. "Wilhelm Röpke and Richard C. Koo On Secondary Deflations and Balance Sheet Recessions," Economic Affairs, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(2), pages 215-224, June.
    17. Witold Małecki, 2016. "Finansjalizacja cykli koniunkturalnych i jej konsekwencje dla polityki stabilizacyjnej," Gospodarka Narodowa, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 4, pages 47-68.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    balance sheet recession; deleveraging; fiscal policy; international financial crisis; monetary policy;

    JEL classification:

    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises

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