IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this article

Seasonal Adjustment in Times of Strong Economic Changes


  • Jens Mehrhoff

    () (Deutsche Bundesbank)


The present paper refers to the ESS Guidelines on Seasonal Adjustment and gives an example of how to use them in times of crisis. Taking as a basis the example of Argentine currency in circulation, a comparison is made between revisions from readjusting data every time a new figure is released (partial concurrent adjustment –with and without outlier modeling) and adjusting data with forecast seasonal/calendar factors (controlled current adjustment). Unlike the recent financial and economic crisis, this example comprises sufficient data to explore the crisis from an ex post view. If strong economic changes are treated adequately, i.e. either by introducing outlier variables or using forecast seasonal/calendar factors, revisions can be kept low and both methods will give similar results. By contrast, if outliers are not specified, it will be wrongly assumed that the effects of the crisis (partially) recur year after year. This would limit the quality of the estimates of seasonal and calendar factors and result in probably misleading outcomes of the partial concurrent adjustment approach. As the conditions for seasonality remain valid during the crisis, seasonal adjustment is justified in order to facilitate the uncovering of “news” in economic developments during this period.

Suggested Citation

  • Jens Mehrhoff, 2010. "Seasonal Adjustment in Times of Strong Economic Changes," Ensayos Económicos, Central Bank of Argentina, Economic Research Department, vol. 1(59), pages 7-23, July - Se.
  • Handle: RePEc:bcr:ensayo:v:1:y:2010:i:59:p:7-23

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    File Function: Spanish version (versión en Español)
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Findley, David F, et al, 1998. "New Capabilities and Methods of the X-12-ARIMA Seasonal-Adjustment Program," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(2), pages 127-152, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item


    argentine crisis; currency in circulation; ESS Guidelines; outlier modeling; revision analysis; TRAMO/SEATS; X-12-ARIMA;

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C82 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data; Data Access
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bcr:ensayo:v:1:y:2010:i:59:p:7-23. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Federico Grillo). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.