Seasonal Adjustment in Times of Strong Economic Changes
The present paper refers to the ESS Guidelines on Seasonal Adjustment and gives an example of how to use them in times of crisis. Taking as a basis the example of Argentine currency in circulation, a comparison is made between revisions from readjusting data every time a new figure is released (partial concurrent adjustment –with and without outlier modeling) and adjusting data with forecast seasonal/calendar factors (controlled current adjustment). Unlike the recent financial and economic crisis, this example comprises sufficient data to explore the crisis from an ex post view. If strong economic changes are treated adequately, i.e. either by introducing outlier variables or using forecast seasonal/calendar factors, revisions can be kept low and both methods will give similar results. By contrast, if outliers are not specified, it will be wrongly assumed that the effects of the crisis (partially) recur year after year. This would limit the quality of the estimates of seasonal and calendar factors and result in probably misleading outcomes of the partial concurrent adjustment approach. As the conditions for seasonality remain valid during the crisis, seasonal adjustment is justified in order to facilitate the uncovering of “news” in economic developments during this period.
Volume (Year): 1 (2010)
Issue (Month): 59 (July - September)
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Reconquista 266 - C1003ABF - Buenos Aires|
Phone: (54-11) 4348-3582
Fax: (54-11) 4348-3794
Web page: http://www.bcra.gov.ar
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Findley, David F, et al, 1998. "New Capabilities and Methods of the X-12-ARIMA Seasonal-Adjustment Program," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(2), pages 127-52, April.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bcr:ensayo:v:1:y:2010:i:59:p:7-23. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Federico Grillo)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.