Economic Policy out of the Corridor. Reflections on the Global Crisis and the Latin American Experience
These notes examine the international crisis by analyzing it through Latin American lenses. The exercise consists in interpreting some key facts of the current global crisis in the light of what we know about volatility, crisis and stabilization policies in Latin America. The exercise has an exploratory purpose and focuses on the aspects of the crisis having analogies with facts that were previously observed in the region. To this effect, a set of stylized facts about volatility, crisis and collapses in Latin America is presented, together with an analysis of the concept of “crisis” understood as the interaction between volatile stochastic processes and governance structures. Finally, the analysis includes the consequences for the macroeconomic stabilization policies in developed countries when the economy is out of the stability corridor, as it seems to be the case right now. An important conclusion is that, out of the corridor, the demands for macroeconomic policy may be qualitatively different, as suggested by the Latin American experience. This is a region where, due to the frequency of crises, some problems are likely to show up, such as: public debt sustainability, uncertainty about the effect of fiscal stimulus, lack of coordination among policies and rules changes.
Volume (Year): 1 (2009)
Issue (Month): 53-54 (January - June)
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Reconquista 266 - C1003ABF - Buenos Aires|
Phone: (54-11) 4348-3582
Fax: (54-11) 4348-3794
Web page: http://www.bcra.gov.ar
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Ugo Panizza & Dany Jaimovich, 2007.
"Procyclicality or Reverse Causality?,"
Research Department Publications
4508, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
- Edwards, Sebastian, 2007. "Crises and Growth: A Latin American Perspective," Revista de Historia Económica, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(01), pages 19-51, January.
- Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart & Carlos A. Vegh, 2004.
"When it Rains, it Pours: Procyclical Capital Flows and Macroeconomic Policies,"
NBER Working Papers
10780, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart & Carlos A. Végh, 2005. "When It Rains, It Pours: Procyclical Capital Flows and Macroeconomic Policies," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2004, Volume 19, pages 11-82 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela & Vegh, Carlos, 2004. "When it rains, it pours: Procyclical capital flows and macroeconomic policies," MPRA Paper 13883, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Susanto Basu & Alan M. Taylor, 1999.
"Business Cycles in International Historical Perspective,"
Journal of Economic Perspectives,
American Economic Association, vol. 13(2), pages 45-68, Spring.
- Susanto Basu & Alan M. Taylor, 1999. "Business Cycles in International Historical Perspective," NBER Working Papers 7090, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Edwards, Sebastián, 2007.
"Crises and growth : a Latin American perspective,"
IFCS - Working Papers in Economic History.WH
wp07-07, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Instituto Figuerola.
- Olivier Blanchard, 2005.
"European Unemployment: The Evolution of Facts and Ideas,"
NBER Working Papers
11750, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Olivier Blanchard, 2006. "European unemployment: the evolution of facts and ideas," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 21(45), pages 5-59, 01.
- John Y. Campbell, 2001.
"Have Individual Stocks Become More Volatile? An Empirical Exploration of Idiosyncratic Risk,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 56(1), pages 1-43, 02.
- Malkiel, Burton & Campbell, John & Lettau, Martin & Xu, Yexiao, 2001. "Have Individual Stocks Become More Volatile? An Empirical Exploration of Idiosyncratic Risk," Scholarly Articles 3128707, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- John Y. Campbell & Martin Lettau & Burton G. Malkiel & Yexiao Xu, 2000. "Have Individual Stocks Become More Volatile? An Empirical Exploration of Idiosyncratic Risk," NBER Working Papers 7590, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Dani Rodrik, 1996. "Understanding Economic Policy Reform," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(1), pages 9-41, March.
- Robert C. Merton & Zvi Bodie, 2004. "The Design of Financial Systems: Towards a Synthesis of Function and Structure," NBER Working Papers 10620, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- N/A, 2009. "On the Recession," Local Economy, London South Bank University, vol. 24(3), pages 253-253, May.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 2000.
"Las crisis gemelas: las causas de los problemas bancarios y de balanza de pagos
[The twin crises: Te causes of banking and balance of payments problems]," MPRA Paper 13842, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 1999. "The twin crises: The causes of banking and balance of payments problems," MPRA Paper 14081, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996. "The twin crises: the causes of banking and balance-of-payments problems," International Finance Discussion Papers 544, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Hnatkovska, Viktoria & Loayza, Norman, 2004. "Volatility and growth," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3184, The World Bank.
- Ratna Sahay & Rishi Goyal, 2006. "Volatility and Growth in Latin America; An Episodic Approach," IMF Working Papers 06/287, International Monetary Fund.
- Alejandro Izquierdo & Ernesto Talvi & Guillermo A Calvo, 2006.
"Phoenix miracles in emerging markets: recovering without credit from systemic financial crises,"
BIS Working Papers
221, Bank for International Settlements.
- Guillermo A. Calvo & Alejandro Izquierdo & Ernesto Talvi, 2006. "Phoenix Miracles in Emerging Markets: Recovering without Credit from Systemic Financial Crises," NBER Working Papers 12101, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Guillermo A. Calvo & Alejandro Izquierdo & Ernesto Talvi, 2006. "Phoenix Miracles in Emerging Markets: Recovering without Credit from Systemic Financial Crises," Research Department Publications 4474, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
- Alan Auerbach, 2002.
"Is There a Role for Discretionary Fiscal Policy?,"
NBER Working Papers
9306, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Alan J. Auerbach, 2002. "Is there a role for discretionary fiscal policy?," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 109-150.
- Antonio Spilimbergo & Steven A. Symansky & Carlo Cottarelli & Olivier J Blanchard, 2009.
"Fiscal Policy for the Crisis,"
IMF Staff Position Notes
2008/01, International Monetary Fund.
- Denzau, Arthur T & North, Douglass C, 1994.
"Shared Mental Models: Ideologies and Institutions,"
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(1), pages 3-31.
- Olivier Blanchard, 2004. "Fiscal Dominance and Inflation Targeting: Lessons from Brazil," NBER Working Papers 10389, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bcr:ensayo:v:1:y:2009:i:53-54:p:73-105. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Federico Grillo)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.