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The New Global Equilibrium

Author

Listed:
  • Christian Broda

    (Barclays Capital)

  • Piero Ghezzi

    (Barclays Capital)

  • Eduardo Levy-Yeyati

    (Barclays Capital)

Abstract

Few months after the onset of the crisis, the flight to safe assets at world level benefited the US treasuries, while the financial deleveraging favored the US dollar. Once the economic and market conditions return to normal, we will see a reversal of these trends (i.e., a weakened dollar and an increase of US interest rates). The return of risk appetite will be accompanied by a more regulated financial scenario and a reduced leveraging that will result in a persistent shortage of international capital, an increase of private savings from the wealth effect of the crisis, the implementation of expansionary fiscal policies and the reduction of the foreign income of economies with a trade surplus that might lead to a “savings drain” by global lenders. Despite the reduction of the US current account deficit, the United States is likely to face more stringent conditions for financing in the years to come. Within this context, we expect that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates at a low level at least until there are clear recovery signs of the US economy, at the expense of a higher depreciation of the dollar.

Suggested Citation

  • Christian Broda & Piero Ghezzi & Eduardo Levy-Yeyati, 2009. "The New Global Equilibrium," Ensayos Económicos, Central Bank of Argentina, Economic Research Department, vol. 1(53-54), pages 167-185, January -.
  • Handle: RePEc:bcr:ensayo:v:1:y:2009:i:53-54:p:167-185
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    capital movements; current account balance; dollar; global imbalances; international crisis; United States;

    JEL classification:

    • F02 - International Economics - - General - - - International Economic Order and Integration
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises

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