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Changes in the Indicator Properties of Narrow Monetary Aggregates




Although many countries have abandoned monetary targeting in recent decades, monetary aggregates are still useful indicators of future economic activity. Past research has shown that, compared with other monetary aggregates and expressed in real terms, net M1 and gross M1 have traditionally provided superior leading information for output growth. Yet financial innovations and the elimination of reserve requirements over the past two decades have made it increasingly difficult for financial institutions to differentiate between demand and notice deposits, suggesting the need to re-examine the information content of narrow monetary aggregates that depend on such a distinction. Based on an analysis over a sample period from 1975Q1 to 2005Q1, the authors determine that the leading-indicator properties of the narrow monetary aggregates for output growth have shifted over time and that, since 1993, real M1+ has become a better indicator of future output growth than real gross and net M1.

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  • Tracy Chan & Ramdane Djoudad & Jackson Loi, 2005. "Changes in the Indicator Properties of Narrow Monetary Aggregates," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 2005(Summer), pages 3-10.
  • Handle: RePEc:bca:bcarev:v:2005:y:2005:i:summer05:p:3-10

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Macdonald, Ryan, 2007. "Canadian and U.S. Real Income Growth Pre and Post 2000: A Reversal of Fortunes," Economic Analysis (EA) Research Paper Series 2007048e, Statistics Canada, Analytical Studies Branch.
    2. Fagerberg, Jan, 2000. "Technological progress, structural change and productivity growth: a comparative study," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 393-411, December.
    3. Daniel S. Hamermesh & Gerard A. Pfann, 1996. "Adjustment Costs in Factor Demand," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(3), pages 1264-1292, September.
    4. Jeannine Bailliu & Michael R. King, 2005. "What Drives Movements in Exchange Rates?," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 2005(Autumn), pages 27-39.
    5. Robert Lafrance & Lawrence L. Schembri, 2000. "The Exchange Rate, Productivity, and the Standard of Living," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 1999(Winter), pages 17-28.
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    1. Akhter Faroque & William Veloce & Jean-Francois Lamarche, 2012. "Have structural changes eliminated the out-of-sample ability of financial variables to forecast real activity after the mid-1980s? Evidence from the Canadian economy," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(30), pages 3965-3985, October.

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