Can rural human capital inputs enhance agricultural total factor productivity? - Based on the dualistic economic structure perspective

Human factor inputs are key to promoting agricultural modernisation. Traditional economic theory suggests that improving human capital is the key to boosting agricultural productivity, but can this conclusion hold in China's dualistic economic structure? We use Chinese provincial panel data from 2000-2017 to examine the impact of rural human capital inputs on agricultural total factor productivity. We find that, on the whole, rural human capital inputs have a negative effect on agricultural total factor productivity, and that there is a "rural human capital trap". Mechanism analysis reveals that rural human capital inputs, on the one hand, cause labour loss and reduce the quality of agricultural workers, while on the other hand, they may promote the application of mechanization, which has both positive and negative effects on agricultural total factor productivity. Heterogeneity analysis finds that this negative effect is more pronounced in the central region of China because of the serious loss of rural labour. This study provides new policy insights for further improving the structure of rural education inputs and promoting human capital accumulation in agriculture.