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Decline in Global GDP Growth after Solar Maximums (1961–2024)

Author

Listed:
  • Vladimir Belkin

Abstract

The article uses the methodological approach developed by W.S. Jevons and A.L. Chizhevsky. The author found that for the years 1961–2024, immediately after each solar maximum, there was a general decrease in global GDP by an average of -1.903% over two years. The correlation coefficient of Wolf numbers in the years of maximum solar activity and the subsequent decrease in worldwide GDP percentage is -0.806. This made it possible to develop a forecast for a decrease in global GDP for 2025 and 2026 as a whole by -2.2%. The forecast value of annual GDP growth in 2025 around the world is 2.32%. The next years of high economic growth are expected to be 2027, 2028, and 2029, with projected annual global GDP growth of 4.38, 4.29, and 3.85 (%), respectively.

Suggested Citation

  • Vladimir Belkin, 2026. "Decline in Global GDP Growth after Solar Maximums (1961–2024)," Economic Thought journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 1, pages 84-93.
    • Handle: RePEc:bas:econth:y:2026:i:1:p:84-93
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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