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Ex Ante Crises’ Indications

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  • Garabed Minassian

Abstract

The condition of the Bulgarian economy by 2008 is analysed in terms of some evolving inner tensions and disbalances. The fastest growth in the sector of industry is due to construction whereas in the services sector – to financial mediation. Such a discordance could not continue in the future, so structural adjustments linked to the overall tuning of the economy, are both possible and probable. The second part of the article studies the changes in inflation rates, employment and income. A clear positive trend of inflationary pressures emerges, which is in line with the positive development of real income of households per capita. Material and financial resources are tied up in unproductive projects which pushes domestic demand further but the latter is not met structurally by a corresponding supply. The subject of the third part is financial mediation. The lending provided by the banking system is still being held at an unreasonably high level which does not correspond to the structural characteristics of demand. In the end some conclusions are drawn for the inner structural tensions building up in the economy, accompanied by intensifying disequilibrium. There has been made an attempt to formulate adequate macroeconomic management policies with a view to preventing serious economic and financial failures from happening as a result of the overheated to a certain extent Bulgarian economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Garabed Minassian, 2009. "Ex Ante Crises’ Indications," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 1, pages 98-118.
  • Handle: RePEc:bas:econst:y:2009:i:1:p:98-118
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ivan Angelov, 2008. "The Global Financial and Economic Crisis and Bulgaria," Economic Thought journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 5, pages 35-65.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E66 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General Outlook and Conditions
    • H30 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - General

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