IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this article

Ex Ante Crises’ Indications


  • Garabed Minassian


The condition of the Bulgarian economy by 2008 is analysed in terms of some evolving inner tensions and disbalances. The fastest growth in the sector of industry is due to construction whereas in the services sector – to financial mediation. Such a discordance could not continue in the future, so structural adjustments linked to the overall tuning of the economy, are both possible and probable. The second part of the article studies the changes in inflation rates, employment and income. A clear positive trend of inflationary pressures emerges, which is in line with the positive development of real income of households per capita. Material and financial resources are tied up in unproductive projects which pushes domestic demand further but the latter is not met structurally by a corresponding supply. The subject of the third part is financial mediation. The lending provided by the banking system is still being held at an unreasonably high level which does not correspond to the structural characteristics of demand. In the end some conclusions are drawn for the inner structural tensions building up in the economy, accompanied by intensifying disequilibrium. There has been made an attempt to formulate adequate macroeconomic management policies with a view to preventing serious economic and financial failures from happening as a result of the overheated to a certain extent Bulgarian economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Garabed Minassian, 2009. "Ex Ante Crises’ Indications," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 1, pages 98-118.
  • Handle: RePEc:bas:econst:y:2009:i:1:p:98-118

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: Fee access

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Ivan Angelov, 2008. "The Global Financial and Economic Crisis and Bulgaria," Economic Thought journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 5, pages 35-65.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E66 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General Outlook and Conditions
    • H30 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - General


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bas:econst:y:2009:i:1:p:98-118. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Diana Dimitrova). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.