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An Application of Fuzzy Time Series: A Long Range Forecasting Method in the Global Steel Price Index Forecast

Author

Listed:
  • Ming-Tao Chou

    (Chang Jung Christian University, Republic of China (Taiwan))

Abstract

The global steel price index is a leading indicator in the bulk shipping industry. A study of the global steel price index combined with the establishment of fuzzy time series models can be used to predict future trends in the trading range of the global steel price index. Analysis of applied fuzzy time series data shows the following results: (1) Price volatility of the global steel price index remains positive following the global financial crisis; (2) Mode analysis shows that the 2012 global steel price index has a predictive value of 211.864 and its trading range will fluctuate between 74.577 and 211.864; (3) The group average prediction error rate is 4.40%. This paper describes the results of a study that can provide reference data to investors for hedging purposes and to operators in the shipping industry.

Suggested Citation

  • Ming-Tao Chou, 2013. "An Application of Fuzzy Time Series: A Long Range Forecasting Method in the Global Steel Price Index Forecast," Review of Economics & Finance, Better Advances Press, Canada, vol. 3, pages 90-98, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:bap:journl:130109
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fuzzy time series; Global Steel Price Index; Bulk shipping;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C43 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Index Numbers and Aggregation
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General

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