IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

An Application of Fuzzy Time Series: A Long Range Forecasting Method in the Global Steel Price Index Forecast

  • Ming-Tao Chou

    ()

    (Chang Jung Christian University, Republic of China (Taiwan))

Registered author(s):

    The global steel price index is a leading indicator in the bulk shipping industry. A study of the global steel price index combined with the establishment of fuzzy time series models can be used to predict future trends in the trading range of the global steel price index. Analysis of applied fuzzy time series data shows the following results: (1) Price volatility of the global steel price index remains positive following the global financial crisis; (2) Mode analysis shows that the 2012 global steel price index has a predictive value of 211.864 and its trading range will fluctuate between 74.577 and 211.864; (3) The group average prediction error rate is 4.40%. This paper describes the results of a study that can provide reference data to investors for hedging purposes and to operators in the shipping industry.

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

    File URL: http://www.bapress.ca/ref/v3-1/2013109.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Article provided by Better Advances Press, Canada in its journal Review of Economics & Finance.

    Volume (Year): 3 (2013)
    Issue (Month): (February)
    Pages: 90-98

    as
    in new window

    Handle: RePEc:bap:journl:130109
    Contact details of provider: Postal: 17 Alton Towers Circle, Unit 101 Toronto, ON, M1V3L8, Canada
    Phone: +1-647-728-3961
    Web page: http://www.bapress.ca

    Order Information: Postal: 17 Alton Towers Circle, Unit 101 Toronto, ON, M1V3L8, Canada
    Email:


    No references listed on IDEAS
    You can help add them by filling out this form.

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bap:journl:130109. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Bill Yan)

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.