Thailand¡¯s International Tourism Demand: Seasonal Panel Unit Roots and the Related Cointegration Model
Tourism is the main service sector in Thailand. It generated about 6.5% of national income (GDP) in 2009. 547 billion baht came from international tourists and 380 billion baht from domestic tourists in 2008. This study analyzes panel data by using the seasonal unit roots test. Firstly, we apply the CHEGY-IPS panel seasonal unit roots test developed by Otero (2007). Secondly, we develop a long run relationship model to estimate the number of international tourists to Thailand from 1997 to 2010 using the generalized method of moments (GMM).The results reveal panel seasonal unit roots in all model variables: GDP of the tourists¡¯ country of origin, competitive ratio of CPI between Thailand and country of origin, currency exchange rates, and transportation costs. The results from cointegration estimation by the GMM demonstrate that there is a positive relationship between GDP and the number of international tourist arrivals: a 1% increase of GDP leading to an increase of 1.5% of the number of international tourists. Regarding the exchange rate, a negative relationship is found: a 1% stronger Thai currency will lead to a decrease of 0.55% in the number of international tourists. Lastly, season has a significant effect upon the number of tourists. The number of tourists in January to March is higher than in other quarters.
Volume (Year): 1 (2011)
Issue (Month): (June)
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 17 Alton Towers Circle, Unit 101 Toronto, ON, M1V3L8, Canada|
Web page: http://www.bapress.ca
|Order Information:|| Postal: 17 Alton Towers Circle, Unit 101 Toronto, ON, M1V3L8, Canada|
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bap:journl:110305. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Carlson)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.