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Healthcare Inflation and Life Expectancy in Nigeria: The Moderating Role of GDP Growth

Author

Listed:
  • Nasiru Enesi SALAMI

    (Federal University of Technology, Minna, Nigeria)

  • James OBILIKWU

    (Ibrahim Badamasi Babangida University, Lapai, Nigeria)

  • Usman Alhaji USMAN

    (Ibrahim Badamasi Babangida University, Lapai, Nigeria)

Abstract

This study investigated healthcare inflation and life expectancy in Nigeria focusing on the moderating role of GDP per capita growth within a macroeconomic framework. This study used Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) technique and covers from 1985 to 2023. The short-run dynamics reveal that life expectancy is highly persistent, with past values exerting a dominant influence on current outcomes. Healthcare inflation exerts a delayed but negative effect on life expectancy. The health expenditure improves life expectancy only after a lag. GDP per capita growth shows weak and inconsistent short-run effects. However, the moderating variable becomes significant in the lagged period. The long-run results confirm a stable equilibrium relationship between life expectancy and its determinants. In the long-run, healthcare inflation has a negative and statistically significant effect on the life expectancy while the moderating variable has a negative but statistically insignificant effect. The interaction variable and healthcare expenditure have positive and statistically significant effects on the life expectancy. Hence the significant of interaction variable in the long-run confirms that the GDP per capita growth serves as a strong moderator in the relationship. To strengthen life expectancy outcomes, government must curb healthcare inflation, expand public health investment, and ensure equitable income distribution.

Suggested Citation

  • Nasiru Enesi SALAMI & James OBILIKWU & Usman Alhaji USMAN, 2026. "Healthcare Inflation and Life Expectancy in Nigeria: The Moderating Role of GDP Growth," Journal of Economic Sciences, Federal Urdu University Islamabad, Department of Economics, vol. 5(1), pages 37-48, January-J.
    • Handle: RePEc:azm:journl:v:5:y:2026:i:1:p:37-48
    DOI: 10.55603/jes.v5i1.a3
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • I10 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - General
    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior
    • I15 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health and Economic Development
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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