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Incorporating external factors into country risk analysis

Author

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  • Toksoz, Mina

Abstract

Today, any sign of unexpected change in monetary policy by a central bank in a major financial centre triggers massive volatility in capital flows. Since 2013, this has been mostly in and out of emerging markets. For portfolio investors, global conditions have become a key — and at times overriding — factor in investment decisions. This paper will show how, over time, country risk analysis has slowly integrated global risk factors external to the country. It will argue that despite the evident major impact of capital flows and policy spill-overs on national economies and shrinking room for national control over domestic economic policy due to global integration, external factors are still not being given the weight that they deserve.

Suggested Citation

  • Toksoz, Mina, 2017. "Incorporating external factors into country risk analysis," Journal of Risk Management in Financial Institutions, Henry Stewart Publications, vol. 10(1), pages 65-73, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:aza:rmfi00:y:2017:v:10:i:1:p:65-73
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    country risk; sovereign defaults; credit cycles; capital flows; external shocks; policy spill-overs;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G2 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit

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