Enhancing Supply Chain Efficiency in the Guangdong--Hong Kong--Macao Greater Bay Area's Air Transport System: A Perspective from Bullwhip Effect Mitigation

The Guangdong--Hong Kong--Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA) has developed a dense and functionally differentiated airport cluster that plays a critical role in regional and global logistics. However, its air transport supply chain still faces significant inefficiencies caused by fragmented cross-jurisdictional governance, long lead times, and weak information connectivity. These conditions intensify the bullwhip effect by amplifying demand fluctuations, distorting inventory decisions, raising logistics costs, and reducing supply chain responsiveness. Against this background, this study examines how the shared-airport model can improve supply chain efficiency from the perspective of bullwhip effect mitigation. Drawing on bullwhip effect theory and supply chain coordination theory, the paper argues that the shared-airport model reduces demand amplification through three main mechanisms: lead-time compression, information sharing with collaborative forecasting, and network optimization. Case evidence from the Dongguan--Hong Kong International Airport Logistics Park, Beijing Daxing Airport's shared equipment model, and the Qingdao Airport Super Cargo Terminal further demonstrates that institutional linkage, resource sharing, and front-end service extension can effectively reduce operational fragmentation and enhance logistics efficiency. Based on these findings, the paper proposes three strategic directions for the GBA: strengthening institutional coordination, building a regional digital logistics ecosystem, and developing a more resilient airport-network structure. The study concludes that the shared-airport model is an important pathway for mitigating the bullwhip effect and improving the efficiency, resilience, and integration of the GBA's air transport supply chain.