From Viral Sound to Commercial Success: An Empirical Investigation of Music Diffusion Paths and Marketing Mechanisms on TikTok

The emergence of TikTok has fundamentally reshaped music discovery and promotion, with numerous songs achieving mainstream commercial success after first gaining traction on the platform. However, the mechanisms through which viral propagation on short video platforms translates into measurable commercial outcomes remain underexplored. This study investigates the relationship between TikTok-based music propagation and commercial success metrics, specifically examining how viral propagation paths-including user-generated content volume, music challenge participation, and propagation velocity-influence song performance on Spotify charts and Billboard rankings. A quantitative empirical approach was employed, analyzing publicly available data from three case studies of songs that experienced viral trajectories on TikTok between 2022 and 2024. Data were collected through systematic tracking of platform engagement metrics, streaming statistics, and chart positions over a defined observation window. Statistical analyses, including correlation and mediation modeling, were conducted to assess the relative impact of each propagation variable. The findings reveal that user-generated content creation volume exhibits the strongest correlation with streaming success, while the speed of initial propagation significantly predicts Billboard chart entry. Music challenges function as critical catalysts, with challenge participation rates mediating the relationship between sound usage and commercial outcomes. This study contributes to understanding digital music marketing mechanisms and offers actionable insights for music industry practitioners seeking to leverage short-form platforms for promotional strategies.