Analysis of the Impact of EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism on Key Export Products of Guangdong Province

As one of China's largest export hubs, Guangdong Province accounts for a substantial proportion of national and global export value. Consequently, the European Union's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) will compel the province to absorb new carbon costs across multiple export categories, posing a negative threat to its export-driven economy. This study systematically evaluates the direct and potential impacts of the CBAM policy on Guangdong's export landscape. Utilizing comprehensive databases-including the United Nations Commodity Trade Statistics, regional customs export volumes, product carbon emissions, and EU carbon market inclusion data-we identify the specific products affected. Furthermore, we construct a robust calculation model to assess the impact on 19 distinct product types exported from Guangdong to 27 EU member states. By introducing the concept of a critical EU carbon price, we analyze product resilience and simulate economic consequences under three distinct CBAM fee implementation scenarios. The analysis yields a comprehensive list of key affected products and proposes targeted mitigation strategies to support regional policymakers. Results indicate that following CBAM implementation, Guangdong's exports to the EU could decrease by 41.2 to 54.2 billion yuan, representing 61.44% to 80.77% of the total exports of listed products to the region. Beyond the six primary industries initially targeted by the EU-cement, steel, aluminum, fertilizers, electricity, and hydrogen-Guangdong must proactively prepare for future CBAM impacts on its ceramics, glass, plastics, paper, and rubber sectors.