Global Trends, Gender and Age Differences, and Future Predictions of Atrial Fibrillation and Atrial Flutter Burden: An Analysis Based on GBD Data

Atrial fibrillation (AF) and atrial flutter (AFL) are the most prevalent cardiac arrhythmias, contributing substantially to morbidity and mortality through complications such as ischemic stroke and heart failure. Despite advances in treatment, including anticoagulation therapy and catheter ablation, the global burden of AF and AFL has continued to increase over recent decades. This study examines trends in prevalence, incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) associated with AF and AFL from 1990 to 2021, based on data from the Global Burden of Disease study. Key risk factors, including hypertension, obesity, smoking, and alcohol consumption, were analyzed along with their regional variations. The findings highlight significant disparities across regions, age groups, and sexes. High-income countries tend to exhibit a greater burden due to enhanced detection capabilities and an aging population, whereas low-income countries experience higher age-standardized mortality rates, likely due to limited healthcare resources. Projections to 2035 suggest a continued increase in AF and AFL incidence driven primarily by population aging and persistent prevalence of modifiable risk factors, while mortality rates are expected to decline. These results emphasize the need for targeted prevention strategies and improved healthcare accessibility, particularly in lower-income regions, to mitigate the growing global impact of AF and AFL.