The Impact of Industrial Intelligence on Urban Industrial Chain Resilience: Based on the TOE Framework

With the advancement of the "14th Five-Year Plan for Intelligent Manufacturing Development" and the deepening of the digital economy, China's industrial intelligence has entered a critical transformation period, characterized by continuous growth in the value-added of high-tech manufacturing. Concurrently, in the context of interconnected global value chains and overlapping geopolitical challenges, industrial chain resilience has emerged as a key indicator for assessing urban industrial stability. In 2020, concepts such as "resilient cities" and "enhancing industrial chain resilience" were incorporated into national strategy, and the 14th Five-Year Plan in 2021 further clarified relevant objectives. Investigating the impact of industrial intelligence on urban industrial chain resilience has thus become a crucial issue for strengthening cities' risk resistance capabilities. This study utilizes panel data from 279 Chinese prefecture-level cities spanning 2006 to 2022, grounded in the TOE (Technology-Organization-Environment) theoretical framework, and combines literature review with empirical analysis. Firstly, the paper defines the core connotations of industrial intelligence and urban industrial chain resilience, reviews foundational theories such as innovation system theory, and constructs a three-dimensional measurement index for industrial intelligence, comprising "foundation-application-benefit." Secondly, a two-way fixed effects model is employed to verify the direct impact of industrial intelligence on urban industrial chain resilience. Finally, based on the TOE framework, the study examines the mediating effects of urban innovation capability and the digital environment, the moderating effect of human capital advancement from technical, environmental, and organizational dimensions, and conducts heterogeneity analyses across regional, policy, and industrial perspectives. The findings indicate the following: (1) Industrial intelligence has a significant positive effect on urban industrial chain resilience, and this conclusion remains robust after conducting robustness and endogeneity tests. (2) Mechanism analysis demonstrates that urban innovation capability and the digital environment serve as partial mediators, while human capital advancement significantly amplifies the enhancing effect of industrial intelligence on urban industrial chain resilience through knowledge spillover from highly skilled talent. (3) Heterogeneity analysis reveals that the resilience-enhancing effect of industrial intelligence is more pronounced in coastal cities, non-key environmental protection cities, non-transport hub cities, and non-resource-based cities, whereas its impact is relatively constrained in inland cities, key environmental protection cities, transport hub cities, and resource-based cities.